BUNDS: Attention turns to the Prelim PMIs
Apr-23 06:28
- The German Bund remains elevated despite showing that it is in the red and drifting through session low going post the Cash open.
- The April high of 132.03 has provided the resistance Yesterday, but also overnight, printed a 132.01 high Yesterday and 131.93 so far Today.
- Donald Trump said that he had no intention in firing Powell, and has now also said that he will be "very nice" to China in any trade talks, this has provided the Gap higher in Equities, while the impact has been more limited in Govies ahead of Today's Data.
- Initial support in Bund will be seen at 131.46, Yesterday's low.
- Main focus this Week on the Data front is Today, with the prelim PMIs.
- SUPPLY: Germany €4bn Bund 10yr (equates to ~33.2k Bund) could weigh, US sells $30bn of 2yr TIPS and $70bn of 5yr Notes.
- SYNDICATION: Austria 2029, 2039, 2053.
- SPEAKERS: A packed day for Speakers, Today includes, BoE Pill, Bailey, Breeden, ECB Knot, Lane, Villeroy, Cipollone, Fed Goolsbee, Musalem, Waller, Hammack, Kugler.
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SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Unwinding An Oversold Condition
Mar-24 06:27
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 106.951 76..4% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 2: 106.847 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 106.800 High Mar 21
- PRICE: 106.740 @ 06:08 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 106.630 Low Mar 18
- SUP 2: 106.540 Low Mar 12
- SUP 3: 106.500 Low Mar 7
- SUP 4: 106.405 Low Mar 6 and the bear trigger
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is 106.847, a Fibonacci retracement. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350, a Fibonacci retracement.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times GMT)
Mar-24 06:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 24-Mar | 0930 | Mar | Flash PMIs |
| 24-Mar | 1800 | - | BOE's Bailey lecture on UK growth |
| 25-Mar | 1100 | Mar | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 26-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Consumer inflation report |
| 26-Mar | - | - | OBR Spring Forecasts |
| 26-Mar | 1530 | Q2 | DMO agenda for quarterly consultation |
| 27-Mar | 0830 | - | BOE's Dhingra on inflation targeting in the UK post pandemic period |
| 28-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Retail Sales |
| 28-Mar | 0700 | Q4 | Current account balance / GDP 2nd est |
| 28-Mar | 0700 | Jan | Trade Balance |
| 31-Mar | 0930 | Jan | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 31-Mar | - | - | DMO Quarterly Investors/GEMM consultation |
| 01-Apr | 0001 | Mar | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 01-Apr | 0915 | - | BoE's Greene on ‘UK MP/macro conjuncture’ |
| 01-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 03-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Decision Maker Panel data |
| 03-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Services / Composite Final PMI |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
Mar-24 06:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 24-Mar | 815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMIs (p) |
| 24-Mar | 830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMIs (p) |
| 24-Mar | 900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMIs (p) |
| 25-Mar | 800 | ES | PPI |
| 25-Mar | 900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25-Mar | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 26-Mar | 745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 26-Mar | 800 | ES | GDP (f) |
| 26-Mar | 1800 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in panel on Digital Finance |
| 27-Mar | 900 | EU | M3 |
| 27-Mar | FR | Insee publishes General Govt balance | |
| 27-Mar | 1300 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at 2025 IIF European Summit |
| 27-Mar | 1740 | EU | ECB's Schnabel lecture on MonPol Transmission |
| 27-Mar | 1805 | EU | ECB's Lagarde message for Women in Finance conference |
