AUD: Asia Wrap - Breaks Below 0.6450, Looking Towards 0.6350 Support
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6398 - 0.6449 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6405. The AUD has remained under pressure after gapping lower on the Asian open, -0.70%. The market is digesting the implications of a longer and more sustained US involvement in the conflict and how Iran might react to this, potentially blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
- AUSTRALIA DATA: Pickup In June Activity But Manufacturing Environment Difficult. The preliminary June S&P Global PMIs showed that services activity in Australia ended Q2 on a more positive note with the index up to 51.3 from 50.6. Manufacturing was stable at 51.0 as the global market becomes more challenging, which left the composite up to 51.2 from 50.5, the highest since March. The Q2 average composite PMI was 50.9 down slightly from Q1’s 51.1, signalling that growth was little changed and remained positive but lacklustre.
- "FITCH RATINGS: AUSTRALIAN MORTGAGE ARREARS SHOW SHARPER THAN EXPECTED RISE, AUSTRALIA MORTGAGE ARREARS RISE IN 1Q.”(BBG)
- The AUD/USD looks likely to have a look back towards its 0.6350/0.6400 support.
- Price remains in the wider 0.6350 - 0.6550 range for now. After failing to break higher, the focus will now turn to whether the support can hold, a close back below 0.6350 is needed to challenge the newly formed uptrend.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6510(AUD397m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6500(AUD1.21b June 26), 0.6450(AUD553m June 26).
- CFTC Data shows Asset managers maintaining their shorts, the Leveraged community though have again added to their shorts.
- AUD/JPY - Today's range 93.85 - 94.38, it is trading currently around 94.00. Choppy price action as the pair establishes a range between 92.00 - 96.00. A break back below 91.50/92.00 is needed to see the move lower regain momentum and the focus turn back to the year's lows again. The move higher in oil and a market already very long JPY is preventing this pair moving lower in reaction to a souring risk backdrop for now.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.40 @ 15:42 GMT May 23
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US FISCAL: Total Tariff Income Jumping In May As New Rates Hit
Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.
- Today's report is important because it represents the largest tariff collections of the month which are typically on a due date around the 22nd, when most corporate importers make their payments.
- Thursday's one-day collection is a record, and the month has already set a new record. Tariff revenues have totaled $22.3B so far in May, and are came in at $17.4B in April (after averaging $8.1B/month in 2024).
- For the fiscal year as a whole so far, customs duties have totaled just under $93B, per the Treasury Daily Statement.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash
Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier.
- The amount hit the 2nd lowest level since the debt limit impasse started, at $46B, on May 20 (the low was $34B on Feb 24).
- With $476B in cash in the Treasury General Account on May 21, that left the total resources available to Treasury at $543B, the least since April 14 - the day before the annual April 15 tax deadline.
- Treasury Sec Bessent warned Congress earlier this month that "there is a reasonable probability that the federal government's cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August while Congress is scheduled to be in recess. Therefore, I respectfully urge Congress to increase or suspend the debt limit by mid-July".
