AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Consolidates Just Above 0.6650
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6663 - 0.6676 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6665, -0.05%. US stocks continue to push higher, the risk is the market is getting ahead of itself looking for a potential positive outcome from the FOMC, so the bar for disappointment is being lowered. The AUD continues to be supported and grinds higher. Should the USD break and extend lower we could see the AUD gain momentum above 0.6650/0.6700 and potentially target levels back towards 0.6900/0.7000. The price action suggests dips will be supported for now as we await confirmation of this potential break higher, the first buy-zone is back towards the 0.6550 area.
- "RBA'S HUNTER: CONSUMPTION LOOKING BETTER, POSITION STARTING TO TURN OVER, MONITORING VERY CLOSELY THE UNDERLYING STRENGTH OF CONSUMER SPENDING, WANT TO KEEP ECONOMY NEAR FULL EMPLOYMENT - [RTRS]"
- Bloomberg - “Investors Cut Dollar Exposure at Record Pace, Deutsche Bank Says. “The FX implications are clear: foreigners may have returned to buying US assets (albeit as we wrote last week at a reduced pace), but they don’t want the dollar exposure that goes with it,” Saravelos wrote. “For every hedged dollar asset that is bought, an equivalent amount of currency is sold to remove the FX risk.”
- This adds credence to recent reports of Aussie Pension/Super funds looking to increase their hedging ratios as the AUD starts to move higher.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6600(AUD549m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6600(AUD894m Sept 18), 0.6750(AUD1.16b Sept 19) - BBG
- CFTC Data last week shows Asset managers slightly increasing their shorts -68333(Last -66025), the Leveraged community pulled back the shorts they had just started to rebuild -5081(Last -11860).
- AUD/JPY - Asia-Pac range 98.04 - 98.39, Asia is trading around 98.00. The pair continued to consolidate its recent gains, the focus now turns back towards the 99.00/100.00 area. Dips back towards 96.50/97.00 should be expected to be supported now first up.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Weekly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Follows Fade in Treasuries
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.710 @ 15:17 BST Aug 15
- SUP 1: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.707 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures received a boost from the US Treasury rally that followed both the recent poor NFP print as well as Tuesday’s inflation number. While this impact faded into the close of the week, 10-year futures remain toward the top end of the recent range. To the upside, next resistance is at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. Next support undercuts at 95.420 (pierced), the Feb 13 low, ahead of 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.
FOREX: USD Index Pinned to 50-dma as Putin Shakes Hands with Trump
- USD slipped against all others Friday, with a poor set of retail sales and Uni of Michigan sentiment numbers meeting a higher-than-expected import price index to further stimulate concerns over a stagflarionary phase in the US economy. The USD Index trades either side of the 50-dma which, notably, has begun to flatten out after maintaining a solid downtrend throughout 2025.
- JPY is the strongest currency in G10, extending the breakout and bearish conclusion of the consolidation phase in USD/JPY. Recent weakness puts the price through support drawn off the early August lows as well as 146.71, a key retracement. Price action this week marks a full reversal of the previously overbought condition, keeping the downside argument in focus.
- Anticipation ahead of the Putin-Trump meeting has reached fever pitch. Footage showing the Presidents shaking hands in Alaska has helped ease concerns over a hostile meeting, but it's the outcomes that will matter to markets - particularly as equities hold at alltime highs. Any signs of progress toward a ceasefire would be warmly received by risk sentiment - although both Trump and Putin cautioned against a optimistic outcome in comments to press.
- We noted earlier in the week the pressure building on USD/HKD, with price action not matching the pattern of HKMA intervention. That move extended overnight, and is still building at typing, putting spot down to new pullback lows of 7.8119 shortly after the European open. Overnight swap rates have surged further still Friday (hitting 1.7% at typing), well ahead of the 0.3% prevailing rate mid-week and should continue to support a recovery in HIBOR fixes ahead. Today's 1m HIBOR fixed higher by 41bps, hitting 1.45% for the highest fix since mid-May. It's these factors that should work against the HKD carry trade (selling HKD, buying USD), evident in the further tightening of the HKD forward discount today: down 975 points from as high as 1270 this month.
- Focus in the coming week shifts to Jackson Hole and Powell's comments on Friday. With the September meeting still in flux - any conviction toward tipping the board toward a rate cut at the next FOMC will be carefully watched, but it's a hawkish outturn that could be more consequential for markets, as OIS prices a near 90% chance of easing on September 17th.
MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN JUN +$77.8B
- MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN JUN +$77.8B
- US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN JUN +$150.8B
