EU REAL ESTATE: Aroundtown: New Issue Guidance (ARNDTN; NR/BBB/NR)
Sep-25 11:42
• Guidance: €750m Expected 5.25yr ms+140a
• Books >€2.75bn (ex JLM) - (market sources)
• IPT: €BMK 5.25yr ms+170a
• FV ms+135
• Total potential size of the Tender is €1.25bn (taking max €300m on the 29s). ARNDTN 30s has €900m outstanding as a guide.
• We see the curve worth 8bps/yr from the recently issued ARNDTN 3.5 30 this gives ms+135bps as FV.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilt Bear Remain In The Driver's Seat
Aug-26 11:30
- In the FI space, Bund futures are unchanged and remain above their recent lows. A bear threat is present. The contract recently breached 128.84, the Jul 25 low. Note that 129.00 represents the base of a broad range. A clear range breakout would strengthen a bearish theme. This would open 128.40 initially, the Apr 9 low. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 129.80, is required to signal a reversal. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 129.51.
- A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend - for now. First support to watch is 90.31, the Aug 22 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would resume the bear leg and open the 90.00 handle. Initial resistance is at 91.24, the Aug 18 high.
EGB SYNDICATION: Austria New 7-Year RAGB: Allocations Out
Aug-26 11:19
- E3bln WNG (excl. E250mln issuer retention) of the new 7-year Sep-32 RAGB
- Spread set earlier at MS+30 (guidance was MS+33 area)
- Books closed in excess of EUR 19bn, including EUR 1.8bn JLM interest
- Format: Reg S, Bearer, 144A eligible, CAC
- Settlement: 02 September 2025 (T+5)
- Maturity: 20 September 2032 (7Y)
- Coupon: TBD, Fixed, Ann., ACT/ACT (Long 1st to 20 September 2026)
- ISIN: AT0000A3NY15
- Bookrunners: BofA / DB(DM/B&D) / Erste Group / HSBC / JPM / Raiffeisen Bank International
- DB=DM/B&D. HR 103% vs DBR 1.7 08/15/32
- Hedge deadline 13.40CET / 12.40UKT
From market source
ESM ISSUANCE: USD2bln WNG New 5-Year: Mandate
Aug-26 11:14
- USD2bln WNG of the new 5-year Sep-30 ESM-Bond
- IPT: MS + 42 bps area (equiv. to CT5 + ~7.3bp)
- Issuer: European Stability Mechanism (TICKER: ESM)
- Issuer Ratings: Aaa (stable) (Moody's) / AAA (stable) (S&P) / AAA (stable) (Fitch)/ AAA (stable) (Scope)
- Format: Registered Notes, Reg S (NSS) / 144A
- Ranking: Senior, Unsecured, Unsubordinated
- Settlement: 4 September 2025 (T+6 (TARGET) / T+5 (NY))
- Maturity Date: 4 September 2030 (5Y)
- Coupon: Fixed, Semi-annual, 30/360, Following, Unadjusted
- Bookrunners: CACIB(DM/B&D) / DB / JPM
- Timing: Taking IOIs today, expect to price tomorrow
From market source.
USD3bln of an ESM USD Bond will mature on September 10. That line was a 5-year issue also initially.
