EU REAL ESTATE: AroundTown (ARNDTN): €500m FRN

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: $82.374 - 76.4% retracement of Oct 17 - 28 bear leg    
• PRICE: $50.808 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: $46.484/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28  
• SUP 2: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 3: $40.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. The trend has recently been in overbought territory and the retracement has allowed this to unwind. Price remains above support at the 50-day EMA, at $46.484. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Initial resistance is $52.374, a Fibonacci retracement.

Gilts rally to in the wake of the soft labour market data that we have detailed in recent bullets. 

• Futures trade as high as 93.67.
• First resistance at the Nov 4 high and bull trigger (93.98) remains untested, although the technical parameters remain bullish.
• Yields 4.5-6.0bp lower, outperformance in the front end as STIRS reprice dovish in the wake of the data.
• October lows intact in 2s.
• Over 80% odds of a Dec BoE cut now priced, with SONIA-implied terminal rate pricing down to 3.33%.
• A reminder that BoE Governor Bailey is viewed as the key swing voter after the 5-4 vote to leave rates unchanged earlier this month (Bailey voted for no change).
• With the other 8 MPC members having entrenched views and what they are watching clearly set out in the individual view paragraphs in the meeting minutes, market volatility around non-Bailey speeches is likely to be much reduced
• On that note, hawkish dissenter Greene will speak this morning (08:30).

• RES 4: 1.4274 High Apr 9  
• RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.4151 Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low 
• PRICE: 1.4027 @ 08:08 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.4001 Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 1.3955 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.3874 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low

USDCAD continues to trade below last week’s high. The latest pullback highlights a potential bearish development and a possible reversal. Resistance at the top of a bull channel, currently at 1.4151, remains intact. The bull channel is drawn from the Jul 23 low. The pair has pierced support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.4021. This exposes the 50-day EMA at 1.3955. For bulls, a break of the channel top would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.