AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6428 50.0% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6389 High Apr 3 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6381/83 3.0% 10-dma envelope / High Apr 15
- PRICE: 0.6349 @ 07:58 BST Apr 16
- SUP 1: 0.6243 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6116/0.5915 Low 10 / Low Apr 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone following recent gains. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA. The break of this average strengthens the reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher, towards 0.6389, the Apr 3 high and the next important resistance. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.5915, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. First support lies at 0.6243, the 20-day EMA.
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EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5409.47/5575.00 20-day EMA / High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5397.00 @ 06:42 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 5284.00 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 5249.00 Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: 5202.00 50.0% retracement of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Mar 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5185.00 Low Feb 4
The medium-term trend direction in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. However, note that support at the 50-day EMA, at 5314.94, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5202.00, a Fibonacci retracement. A resumption of gains would open the 5600.00 handle.
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8450 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 0.8411 @ 06:52 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 0.8369/8342 Low Mar 14 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and Friday’s bullish engulfing candle pattern signals a resumption of the trend and the end of the recent corrective pullback. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8342, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a continuation higher and a break of 0.8450, the Mar 11 high, would open 0.8474, the Jan 20 high and the next key resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply - W/C 17 Mar (2/2)
- On Thursday, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli auction to sell the off-the-run 0.50% Apr-30 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012F76), the on-the-run 10-year 3.15% Apr-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012O67) and the 3.45% Jul-43 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K95) The size will be announced this afternoon.
- Also on Thursday, France will hold a MT OAT auction with a combined E11.5-13.5bln on offer: the on-the-run 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2) and 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68), alongside the 0% May-32 OAT (ISIN: FR0014007L00) and the 3.00% May-33 OAT (ISIN: FR001400H7V7).
- Next on Thursday, Ireland will hold a IGB auction. Details will be announced this morning. We expect two lines to be on offer with a good chance of a 10-year issue (either the 2.60% Oct-34 IGB or 0.40% May-35 IGB) and/or a green bond (the 1.35% Mar-31 Green IGB or the 3.00% Oct-43 Green IGB).
- Later on Thursday, France will return to the market to hold a IL OAT auction to sell a combined E1.5-2.0bln. On offer will be the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367), the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).
- Cancelled auction: Note that due to last week’s syndication / switch and tender operation, the PDMA has announced that the auction that was previously scheduled for Wednesday has been cancelled
NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees no redemptions. Coupon payments for the week total E4.5bln of which E2.2bln are Italian, E1.2bln are Austrian, E0.5bln are German and E0.3bln are Greek. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E21.9bln, vs negative E8.3bln last week.
