MACRO UPDATE: Analysts' German Medium Term Growth Projections Soften
Nov-18 17:04
Private sector German medium-term GDP forecasts have recently seen a deterioration with hard data continuing not to lag improving sentiment and an apparent stagnation in terms of wider economic reform from the government.
- Updating a median estimate from seven sellside analysts that we track, Y/Y growth is expected to start accelerating in Q2 of next year before topping out at 1.7% Y/Y in 2Q27. However, these medium-term forecasts have seen downward pressure in recent months, with broad downward revisions of ~0.1pp in most of 2027 comfortably outweighing a marginally higher median for 1Q26.
- From a fundamental perspective, stronger expectations in German sentiment across a set of indicators seem to not filter through to a) current assessment readings and b) hard data for now. In fact, recent chip shortages for local automotive manufacturers may not only weigh on Q4 growth but also were another sign German industry sees its competitive position pressured mid-term.
- Additionally, next to an ongoing debate if a large amount of the new infrastructure funding is being misused for consumptive expenses, many of the much heralded structural reforms of the government continue to remain in the pipeline. A comprehensive package is planned to be announced before the end of the year. However, we would not be surprised about further delays given ongoing turmoil in the government about a pension reform.
Note that analysts continue to be more optimistic than the European Commission, with yesterday's autumn economic forecasts seeing German growth of 0.2% Y/Y in 2025 and 1.2% each in 2026 and 27.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
