AUSTRALIA: Analysts Divided Over Whether RBA Holds, Hikes Or Cuts In 2026
The December Bloomberg survey showed a median upward revision to consensus cash rate forecasts in 2026 as well as H1 GDP growth driven by stronger investment. A lot of forecasters have taken out easing expectations from their projections with some adding tightening. Headline inflation is little changed with analysts continuing to project it to return to the RBA’s 2-3% band in Q3 2026 as the impact of government electricity rebates drop out of the annual comparisons.
- The median forecast for the cash rate is 3.6% through to the end of the time horizon to Q1 2028, implying analysts now expect rates to be on hold. This is a change from a full 25bp cut expected by Q3 that left rates at 3.35% in the November survey.
- Some forecasters now expect a 25bp hike in Q1, likely at the February monetary policy statement meeting. CBA expects 25bp in February, NAB & Capital Economics 25bp in February and again in Q2, while JP Morgan has 50bp of tightening in H1 2027.
- In contrast, Westpac still expects the RBA to ease but has pushed it out a quarter with 25bp in Q2 and again in Q3 2026 leaving rates at 3.1% and Morgan Stanley in Q3 and Q4 2026.
- The December RBA minutes said that if financial conditions were not “sufficiently restrictive” enough to bring demand and supply back into balance and that the rise in inflation proved to be more persistent and drives a pickup in expectations then a rate hike “might need to be considered” in 2026.
- Consensus unemployment rate projections are little changed with Q4 2025 averaging 4.4% and Q4 2026 4.5%.
- The Bloomberg survey was taken over 5-12 December. The last RBA decision was 9 December.
Australia cash rate expectations
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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RATINGS: Moody's Upgrades Italy To Baa2 From Baa3, Still A Notch Below Others
The Moody's upgrade to Italy's credit rating announced late Friday was the first from the agency since 2002 but shouldn't be considered a major surprise. Among the 3 major ratings agencies, Moody's had the lowest rating on Italy - by two notches (Fitch and S&P both BBB+).
- So this upgrade to Baa2 from Baa3 represents something of a closing of that gap rather than a major breakthrough for Italy.
- From the release:
- "The rating upgrade reflects a consistent track-record of political and policy stability which enhances the effectiveness of economic and fiscal reforms and investment implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). It also points to prospects of further policy actions supporting growth and fiscal consolidation beyond the plan's deadline in August 2026. As a result, we expect that Italy's high government debt burden will gradually decline from 2027 onwards."
FED: Heading Into Its Final Weeks, QT Pace Remains At $20B/Month (2/2)
On the asset side of the Fed balance sheet, we saw a $25B drop in assets, of which just $2B could be attributed to QT in one of its final weeks (ends Dec 1).
- Instead it was a $6B drop in dealer repo operations vs a week earlier, and $17B in "other" areas that aren't related directly to monetary policy and typically don't have any significant impact on the size of the balance sheet (such changes are largely due to items such as bank premises, accrued interest, and other accounts receivable.)
- Discount window takeup edged up $0.3B to $6.1B but remains relatively low.
- QT has totaled just under $21B over the last month, around the expected pace, though as noted this will flatline in December with a pickup in net bills as MBS proceeds are rolled over into T-bills.
LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead: Retail Sales, PPI & Claims Headline Thanksgiving Week
A Thanksgiving-condensed week sees data highlights from delayed retail sales and PPI reports for September on Tuesday (Nov 25) before a Wednesday release for weekly jobless claims (Nov 26). Aside, the Fed’s Beige Book should also offer another important update on Wednesday for latest liaison reporting, with no Fedspeak currently scheduled around the holiday and the FOMC media blackout due to start on Saturday, Nov 29.
- As we regularly comment in this weekly publication, Redbook and Chicago Fed CARTS indicators point to solid nominal growth in retail sales, something broadly reflected in analyst consensus for the release.
- PPI inflation will offer a useful albeit not overly timely update on input cost pressures.
- Jobless claims will be watched particularly closely, both for latest initial claims for signs of layoffs and a notable update for continuing claims. The latter covers the payrolls reference period for November and will be an important reference point for FOMC members trying to get a sense of latest unemployment rate clues with the next payrolls reports coming after the Dec 9-10 FOMC decision (going into it with this week’s 0.12bp rise to 4.44% back in September).
