AUD: Analyst Views Following RBA Decision
Jul-08 09:47
- *Credit Agricole CIB: Strategists highlight that today is only the third time since 2006 the RBA has gone against the Australian rates market’s expectation when it was more than 80% priced for an outcome. They continue to think this environment will constrain RBA rate cuts going forward and expect the outcome to help the Australian dollar outperform on the crosses, especially against NZD.
- *HSBC: The relatively unchanged description on domestic conditions, the vote split, and the rationale suggested the RBA is manoeuvring the timing of policy easing rather than changing the direction. Should the Fed and the RBA end up delivering a similar amount of easing in 2H25, the impact on AUD-USD should be skewed positively via the risk sentiment channel, even if the rate differentials outlook could be uncertain. HSBC maintain their cautiously optimistic stance over the medium term because of ample capacity for fiscal policy support facing growth risks and the potential for a higher FX hedge ratio on Australian investors’ foreign equity holdings.
- *RBC: Strategists in Sydney described the decision as a buy the dip story for bonds, saying that any further selloff attracts buyers given Australia’s steep yield curve and relative haven status. According to RBC, key language around inflation suggests they’re just kicking the can down the road to August which is pretty much a ‘lock’ now to the market. This is tempering the hit and ensuring terminal rate pricing doesn’t kick up too much.
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JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies Off Lows
Jun-06 22:45
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.19 @ 15:53 GMT Jun 06
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs have rallied off recent lows, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: June 2025
Jun-06 21:24
We've just published our UST Issuance Deep Dive - Download Full Report Here
- May’s refunding round saw guidance as well as coupon sizes for the current quarter unchanged.
- The August round (Jul 28-30) could prove more compelling, reflecting both pressure at the long end of the Treasury curve as well as a shifting fiscal outlook amid tariff revenues contrasted with impending tax cuts (not to mention the likelihood of approaching the debt limit at around that time if it’s not lifted).
- Future Coupon Upsizing: We’ve seen some expectations that Treasury could lean against some of those trends in the August refunding, with potential signals if not immediate action on adjusting buybacks or even reducing issuance duration in order to reduce pressure on the long end. MNI’s current expectation is that coupon sizes will only be increased in early 2026. We will update in our next Deep Dive at end-June, with our full refunding preview coming in late July.
- Upcoming issuance: June is set to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $23B in 10Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $366B. Sales for the month start in the coming week, on Tuesday June 10 with $58B of 3Y Note, Wednesday June 11 with $39B of 10Y Note, and Thursday June 12 with $22B of 30Y Bond.
- May Auction Results: Against a backdrop of continued steepening pressure for global sovereign curves, May’s coupon auctions saw strong sales at the short-end/belly contrasted with tails at the long-end.
US FISCAL: Extraordinary Treasury Measures Tick Up As Cash Depletes
Jun-06 20:20
Treasury had $84B in "extraordinary measures" available to keep the government financed as of June 4 per a release Friday. That is up from $68B a week earlier though Treasury has exhausted three-quarters of the total initially available ($362B) when the debt limit impasse began in January.
- Combined with a pullback in Treasury cash ($376B), the total resources available to avert an "x-date" in the summer are down to a total $460B, the lowest since April 10 before the annual tax take accelerated.
- There will be another uptick in Treasury cash late next week/early the following week around the mid-June tax date, but this is likely to be the last major uplift before the summer at which point x-date speculation will pick up if Congress hasn't passed a debt limit increase by then.
