EU-RUSSIA: Ambs. Meet @ 14:30CET, Slovakia Continues To Delay Latest Sanctions

Jul-11 08:10

EU ambassadors will meet at 14:30CET (08:30ET, 13:30BST), with the currently stalled 18th round of sanctions on Russia high on the agenda. Slovakia remains the primary impediment to the latest sanctions, which focus on hitting Russia's energy revenues, its banking sector, and its military industry. Bratislava is holding the latest sanctions package hostage over EU attempts to legally phase out the use of Russian hydrocarbons, something Slovakia argues is essential for keeping the lights on and supporting the economy. 

  • While Slovakia can be outvoted via a qualified majority on the phase-out issue, unanimity is required for the sanctions package, meaning Bratislava can hold up the entire process until it gets an acceptable deal on the energy phase-out.
  • Speaking in Rome on 10 July, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, “I urgently ask Slovakia and its prime minister to give up the resistance and to free the way,”. Slovakian PM Robert Fico responded with a statement saying that, "Slovakia must receive clear guarantees not political promises that its energy security and the affordability of energy will not be threatened by the ideological proposal of the European Commission"
  • Fico says that a bilateral meeting could "significantly move the matter forward", but it is looking increasingly unlikely that a deal will be reached in time for today's Coreper II that would allow for a final sign-off by EU foreign ministers next week. 

Historical bullets

FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY - Some attention on the EUR and Yen

Jun-11 08:08

Bringing your attention to Monday and the Yen Expiry size.

Of note:

EURUSD 2.31bn at 1.1400 (could act as magnet, although the US CPI will determine the move in the spot before expiry at 15.00BST/10.00ET).

USDJPY 1.11bn at 145.00.

EURUSD 1.11bn at 1.1400 (thu).

EURUSD 1.37bn at 1.1400 (fri).

EURUSD 1.25bn at 1.1400 (mon).

USDJPY 4.57bn at 145.00 (mon).

  • EURUSD: 1.1400 (2.31bn), 1.1500 (836mln).
  • GBPUSD: 1.3450 (758mln).
  • USDJPY: 145.00 (1.11bn).
  • AUDUSD: 0.6495 (400mln), 0.6500 (346mln).
  • AUDNZD: 1.0800 (300mln).

GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

Jun-11 08:04

Germany has announced it will be looking to sell the following at its auction next Tuesday, June 17:

  • E1bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU35025)
  • E500mln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005)

ECB: ECB Wage Tracker: June 2025:

Jun-11 08:01
  • Q4 ’25 Wage tracker excluding one-off payments: 3.082%% (vs 3.024% in April)
  • Q4 ’25 Wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments: 2.942%% (vs 2.881% in April)
    • This series is most closely associated with the ECB’s negotiated wages series.
  • Q4 ’25 Wage tracker: 1.703% (vs 1.620% in April)

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