AUSTRALIA DATA: Advertised Salary Growth Stabilising As Jobs Market Tight
January SEEK advertised salary data is showing a gradual pick up in wages offered in line with the labour market tightening “a little further in late 2024”, as the RBA stated in its February meeting statement. Advertised wages rose 0.3% m/m last month to be up 3.6% y/y, the third straight month at this annual rate signalling stabilisation after moderating since the September 2023 peak. The monthly increase has been gradually rising since it troughed at 0.23% m/m in October.
- Today RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said that the central bank is unsure how much spare capacity is in the labour market and haven’t seen evidence that wage moderation is due to an excess.
- 3-month momentum in advertised salaries appears to have stabilised around 3% annualised. SEEK doesn’t expect wage growth to slow as much this year as last given the tightness in the labour market.
- SEEK also observes that “with less people intending to quit their jobs in 2025, the flow through from advertised salary growth to overall income and wage growth may be a little subdued this year.”
- Legal jobs saw the fastest growth up 7.8% y/y as labour demand remains strong, while advertising ,arts & media were weakest rising 1.0% y/y.
Australia SEEK advertised salaries index %
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BONDS: NZGBS: Richer But Well Off Bests, Fin Min In Parliament Tomorrow
NZGBs closed 3-6bps richer, with a flatter 2/10 curve, but well off session bests. The local market was 7-8bps richer early after yesterday’s strong lead-in for US tsys. Cash US tsys are ~2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session.
- NZGBs slightly outperformed their $-bloc counterparts, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials narrowing by 1-2bps. The NZ-US 10-year yield differential, now at -7bps, is edging closer to the cyclical low of -15bps recorded in December 2022—the lowest since late 2020.
- Swap rates closed 2-3bps lower.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-4bps softer across meetings, with late 2025 leading. 48bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 113bps by November 2025.
- Tomorrow, Finance Min Willis speaks to the Select Committee on the Budget Policy Statement and Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update. RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway will also present a speech titled: Beyond the Cycle: Growth and interest rates in the long run.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 1.50% May-31 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond and NZ$100mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
EQUITIES: HK Equities Slightly Higher, Chinese Semiconductor Stocks Struggle
BOJ: Japan Government Nominates Junko Koeda To BoJ Board
Per BBG headlines, the Japan Government has nominated Junko Koeda to the BoJ board. She will replace Seiji Adachi.
- Per the new board member's website from Waseda Univsersity: "Ms. Junko Koeda previously held positions as a chief economist at the Ministry of Finance of Japan, an assistant professor at the University of Tokyo, and a staff economist at the International Monetary Fund. She has a Ph.D. degree in economics from UCLA and a bachelor’s degree from the University of Tokyo." (See this link for more details).
