In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are sharply higher, +34 compared to settlement levels.
- Japan's industrial production rebounded at a faster-than-expected pace in February, but the coming U.S. tariffs may weigh on the recovery ahead. Industrial production rose 2.5% in February following January's 1.1% decline.
- Retail sales rose 0.5% m/m (+1.4% y/y) in February; est. -0.2% (+2.5%).
- Cash US tsys are 3-5bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session as concern over the health of the US economy fuels demand for haven assets. On Friday, a strong risk-off tone pushed the US 10-year 11bp lower ahead of this week's Trump Tariff "Liberation Day" rollout on April 2, not to mention Friday's employment data for March.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 3bps richer across benchmarks, with the belly leading. The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.2bps lower at 1.521% versus the cycle high of 1.596%. 2-year supply is due later today.
- Swap rates are flat to 2bps lower. Swap spreads are mixed.