AUSSIE BONDS: ACGB Oct-36 Auction Prints Below Mids With Solid Demand

Ethereum had a range over the weekend of $3025.15 - $3247.15, Asia is trading around $3100, +1.00%. Ethereum has traded under pressure over the weekend, it gapped lower on the Asian open testing the $3000 area before finding some demand. There are lots of commentators saying this will be the low, but in my experience when you have a leveraged asset class it tends to squeeze out weaker hands and inflict maximum pain before it finds a base again. Technically it now looks to be in a short-term bear market and I think rallies could potentially now be faded, the perfect sell-zone is toward the $3800-$4100 area, where I suspect  sellers will return if given the chance. Ethereum has had a deep pullback almost 40% off its highs seen August, so at some point I think it should again offer value, technically the support comes in initially around $2600-$2800, then more big support toward the $2000-$2200 area.

Fig 1: Ethereum spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Earlier monthly price data for Oct has seen Westpac revise down its Q4 inflation forecast, see below for more detail. Food prices fell 0.3%m/m, after falling 0.4% in Sep. This bought the y/y pace to 4.7%, up from Sep's 4.1% pace, but we have stabilized under 5% in recent months. Westpac cites softer travel and rental for its forecast revision. Note that on Wednesday this week we get Q3 PPI, although this tends not to shift market thinking too much. Note that Q4 CPI in NZ prints on Jan 23 next year. 

Westpac: "We’ve revised our forecast for December quarter inflation to +0.3% and +2.8% for the year to December. Those estimates are both down 0.1ppts from our earlier forecast.  Our updated forecast reflects information from Stats NZ’s monthly selected prices update. That update showed greater than expected softness in travel costs, which can be volatile on a month-to-month basis and will warrant close attention over the coming months. However, we also saw softness in other areas. Most notably, rental inflation has been very weak. Our updated forecast is close to the RBNZ’s last published forecast from their August MPS for a 0.3% quarterly rise, and 2.7% annual inflation. " 

• Note, RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings, post this morning's data (we also had the services PMI, which rose but remain sub 50). 25bps of easing is priced for November, with a cumulative 34bps by February 2026.

• MNI JAPAN Q3 REAL GDP -0.4% Q/Q; MNI MEDIAN -0.7%
• JAPAN Q3 REAL GDP -1.8% ANNUALIZED; MNI MEDIAN -2.7%
• JAPAN Q3 GDP POSTS 1ST CONTRACTION IN 6 QUARTERS