ECB: Accounts Come in Largely Consistent with Recent Speeches

Apr-03 11:37

ECB Accounts for their March meeting posted on the ECB website - largely consistent with recent Governing Council appearances: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/accounts/2025/html/ecb.mg250403~e578b5dbea.en.html

Inflation uncertainty could unfold either way
Combination of US tariffs and retaliatory measures could post upside risks to inflation
No longer possible to be confident that Monpol was restrictive
Significant fiscal expansion via defence spending has the potential to derail disinflation

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Mar-04 11:35

The pushing ahead of previously delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico plus an additional 10% tariffs on China has seen markets lean on the growth negative aspects of tariffs rather than the local inflationary aspect after announcements earlier in the Trump administration.
Whilst off overnight lows, Fed Funds futures show up to an additional 3.5bp of cuts by year-end, with the 76bp priced for 2025 some 40bp higher than prior to last month’s CPI report.
Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 2.5bp Mar, 11.5bp May, 30bp Jun, 40bp Jul and 76bp Dec.
Today sees a particularly quiet docket, with any further US policy announcements likely in the driving seat.
Later on, NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) is interviewed at the Bloomberg Invest Forum (Q&A only). He last spoke Feb 11 – post NFP but before CPI – when he saw mon pol was being well positioned. “The modestly restrictive stance of policy should support the return to 2% inflation while sustaining solid economic growth and labor market conditions. But it’s important to note that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain, particularly around potential fiscal, trade, immigration, and regulatory policies." He also saw QT as proceeding “smoothly”, of note considering the minutes went on to hint that some could support an earlier end point.

Mar-04 11:34

Volumes pick up in Bund as the contract hits a new intraday low, these aren't spread related, RXH5 is sold in over 15k, and only half the volume of the front month is spread related now vs 90% overnight going into the Cash open.
Small immediate support is seen at 132.13, then the 131.72 area.

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