BUNDS: A sudden 25 tick jump post Cash open
- A decent jumps in Bund, but no real trigger, this looks to be flow related, circa 7.8k was lifted in a 5 minutes Window, or 13k in the past 10 minutes, and some 12 minutes after the UK Retail Sales Miss.
- The Immediate resistance of 131.28 holds for now, printed a 131.33 high.
- Today sees the Last assets to roll for this Quarter, and while this might not directly Impact Govies, Equity Triple witching can provide some Gamma Vol into and past respective Expiries in Indices.
- The UK Retail sales was a big miss, but there are far bigger things to focus on in the World near Term.
- The Middle East War is unlikely to change for now after Trump said that he will make a decision in two Weeks whether to strike Iran or Not.
- Tariffs are still the main concerns Globally with the 9th July date fast approaching.
- The Canadian Retail Sales is the only release for Today, but won't impact EGBs.
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GOLD TECHS: Gains Highlight The End Of A Corrective Phase
- RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $3347.5 - High May 9
- PRICE: $3317.2 @ 07:28 BST May 21
- SUP 1: $3176.4/3121.0 - 20-day EMA / Low May 15
- SUP 2: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
- SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support
- SUP 4: $3023.1 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 1 - May 6 price swing
Gold has recovered from its recent lows and is trading higher today. The climb signals the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals remain bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A continuation would open $3435 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.
GBPUSD: GBPUSD breaches 1.3450 for first time since early 2022
- On the back of the stronger than expected UK CPI, GBPUSD has breached 1.3450 for the first time in over three years, breaching technical bull triggers.
- The next notable level is 1.3605, the 138.2% projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing.
- We would expect UK SONIA markets to price in an even lower probability of an August cut (was around 15bp priced at yesterday's close) with 41bp priced for the remainder of the year. Overall, we think this probably still looks appropriate pricing, but the SONIA market is prone to overshooting.
BRENT TECHS: (N5) Challenging Resistance
- RES 4: $75.81 - High Feb 20
- RES 3: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $68.28 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: $66.37/81 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
- PRICE: $66.09 @ 07:12 BST May 21
- SUP 1: $58.00 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support
Brent futures are trading closer to their recent highs and the contract maintains a S/T bullish theme. However, the medium-term trend condition remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. Attention is on $66.37, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $68.28, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a reversal lower would open $58.00, Apr 9 low.
