BUNDS: A more notable overnight session
Dec-12 07:16
- A more interesting session for Bund and Tnotes, while Volumes are still somewhat subdued, futures have reversed the surprising rally post US CPI Yesterday afternoon and into today.
- Since the German Bund managed a 135.68 low overnight, through the 135.75 support, this should see the Yield near and above the 2.14% level when it is quoted.
- For US Tnotes (TYH5), the December low is at 110.18, printed a 110.18+ low, while the next Yield level is seen at 4.3133%, would equate circa 110.12+.
- There's no Data out of Europe, on the other side of the Pond will see the Weekly IJC.
- Main focus is on the ECB, that will surely deliver a 25bps cut, with most of the focus on staff projections.
- SUPPLY: Focus will be on the Italian 2027 (equates to 34.1k short 2yr BTP), 2031, 2035, 2054 (equates combined to 55.2k BTP) will weigh. US Sells $22bn of 30yr reopening.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde's presser.
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EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA
Nov-12 07:11
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 165.43/166.69 High Nov 8 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 163.52 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 163.37/21 50-day EMA / Low Nov 8
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact, however for now, a corrective cycle dominates and the cross is trading at its recent lows. The 50-day EMA lies at 163.37. It has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 161.85, the Oct 17 low. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, a Fibonacci retracement point.
MNI: GERMAN OCT CPI +2 % Y/Y
Nov-12 07:08
- MNI: GERMAN OCT CPI +2 % Y/Y
UK DATA: Labour market initial react
Nov-12 07:06
- At first glance private sector wages a tenth higher than expected, but a bigger upward surprise to bonus payments in the total pay numbers than expected (those can generally be looked through).
- The unemployment rate rising to 4.3% we don't pay too much attention to - the BOE was looking for 4.17% anyway, so it's only a tenth higher than their expectations.
- Will dig into the data for more but shouldn't be huge instant market reactions here.
