AUD: A fresh intraday high for the AUDNZD
Sep-24 10:26
- AUDNZD is making an attempt at the previous intraday high of 1.1317, and as noted last Week and this Week it is becoming an interesting Chart.
- The combination of the poor Growth Data out of New Zealand last and the Australia CPI beat overnight are helping the upside continuation.
- The Next resistance is at circa 1.1348 next, and a clear break through the latter opens to 1.1408, then 1.1448 (retracement level) and finally the big Psychological 1.1500, although most will be pointing out that 1.1491 is the 2022 high and highest printed level since October 2013.
- Given that the USDJPY is testing the immediate resistance of 148.38 we have pointed out this Morning, AUDJPY will be eyed for potential extension to 98.426, the September high, but also the best level reached since January.
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Regional Fed Data, Home Sales, Fed Speakers
Aug-25 10:22
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08/25 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-0.10, -0.11)
- 08/25 1000 New Home Sales (627K, 630K), MoM (0.6%, 0.5%)
- 08/25 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (0.9, -1.7)
- 08/25 1130 US Tsy $82B 13W & $73B 26W bill auctions
- 08/25 1515 Dallas Fed Logan Bank of Mexico conf (text, Q&A)
- 08/25 1915 NY Fed Williams keynote remarks Bank of Mexico (text, Q&A)
- 08/25 Building Permits (1.354M, --), MoM (-2.8%, --)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
US TSYS: Bear Steeper As Cash Trading Resumes
Aug-25 10:12
- Treasuries trade bear steeper with cash trading back underway after UK closures for the bank holiday.
- Friday’s Powell-enhanced steepening has been further extended, with the front end still broadly consolidating the dovish shift on Powell (albeit quite comfortably off highs) whilst 30s extend losses.
- Cash yields are 1-3.7bp higher, led by 20s and 30s.
- Monitoring monetary policy implications from Powell, 2Y yields are currently at 3.707% vs a post-Powell low of 3.673% and ~3.78% pre-Powell.
- 5s30s at 114.6bps easily sets fresh ytd highs having peaked at 112.9bp on Friday.
- TYU5 trades at 112-01+ (-3) on cumulative volumes already at 375k but with more than half of that seemingly from quarterly roll activity.
- Friday’s post-Powell high of 112-08 didn’t test resistance at a bull trigger of 112-15+ (Aug 5 high). Support is seen at 111-12 (50-day EMA).
- Today’s data is focused on regional Fed surveys and housing whilst President Trump comments are watched more broadly, including a meeting with The President Of Korea at the White House from midday ET. Fedspeak from Logan and Williams comes much later in the session.
- Data: Chicago Fed nat activity Jul (0830ET), New home sales Jul (1000ET), Dallas Fed mfg Aug (1030ET), Building permits revisions Jul F
- Fedspeak: Logan speaks at Banxico panel (1515ET, text + Q&A), NY Fed’s Williams gives keynote remarks at Banxico conference (1915ET, text + Q&A)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $82bn 13-w and $73bn 26-w (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump signs executive orders (1000ET – Axios suggests on ending cashless bail), Trump in bilateral meeting with The President of Korea (1215ET)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Futures Bull Cycle Still In Play
Aug-25 10:11
- In the equity space, the dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a 1.764 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Support to watch lies at 6298.61, the 50-day EMA.
- The trend set-up in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high last week. The recent print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and opens 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Support to watch lies at 5370.47, the 50-day EMA.
