BUNDS: A busy Day on the Data front
Jul-31 06:21
- Bund saw a more limited price action during the Hawkish leaning Fed, Mr Powell rejected the argument from two dissenting members, and maintained the need for the Fed to stay vigilant against inflation risk.
- Some of the largest moves were seen in Treasuries and Equities, and just looking at the US Emini, the contract saw one of its largest move since April (Tariffs days), initially plummeting on the Hawkish stance, but has quickly reversed all of its losses following a beat for Meta and Microsoft last night.
- The Emini had quick new record high print Overnight.
- Back to Bund, very short Term outlook remains unchanged and to the Upside, but most desks will now wait for the US NFP Tomorrow.
- Month End flows could be at play into the unofficial European close, towards 16.15BST.
- Bond Extensions are small for the US, Decent for Europe and Huge for the UK, close to the record historical high for the Month of July.
- Resistance in Bund is unchanged at the 129.92/130.00 area.
- French, Italian, Portugal, German Regional/National CPIs are the early focus. Out of the US sees, Core PCE, IJC, and MNI Chicago PMI.
- SPEAKERS: BoJ Ueda's presser.
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BRENT TECHS: (U5) Maintains A Bearish Tone
Jul-01 06:17
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $66.76 @ 07:07 BST Jul 1
- SUP 1: $65.92 - Lowe Jun 30
- SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures are unchanged. The contract traded sharply lower on Jun 23, and for now, maintains a softer tone. The move down has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, the 61.8% retracement of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A continuation lower would expose $61.39 next, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.
BUNDS: The Divergence vs the US is in Focus
Jul-01 06:15
- Bund might be showing 25 ticks up going into the Cash Open, testing the intraday high on low volumes after the 2.60% area in Yield held again Yesterday, printed a 2.612% high.
- But the continued divergence against the US Tnotes (TYU5) will be watched, the US 10yr Yield tested the 4.20% level, initial support was seen Yesterday at 4.1942%, which equated to 112.11 Yesterday.
- Today's printed high in TYU5 is just 2.5 ticks off that level.
- For the German Bund, support moves down to the 130.00 figure, while the initial resistance remains unchanged at 130.80.
- Today's Manufacturing PMIs are final reading for France, Germany, EU, UK and US, the focus Today is on the EU Prelim CPI, US ISM Mfg and JOLTS.
- ECB CPI expectations are also due for release.
- SUPPLY: UK £2bn 30yr (equates to 19.3k Gilt) could somewhat weigh.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Guindos, Elderson, Schnabel, Lagarde, Fed Powell, BoE Bailey, BoJ Ueda.
SOFR OPTIONS: SFRZ5 96.25/96.00 1x2 Put Spread Sold
Jul-01 06:11
SFRZ5 96.25/96.00 1x2 put spread 2K given at 3.25
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