AUSSIE BONDS: 10yr Futures 95.90 High Intact, Q3 CPI/RBA Fireside Chat Next Week
Oct-24 04:05
Aussie bond futures hold weaker, but away from session lows. 10yr (XM were last 95.845, -2bps (session lows were at 95.815), while 3yr (YM) are off by 1.5bps to 96.62 (session lows at 96.585). This fits with broader regional/US trends, where further downside in futures has proven limited so far. A softer tone to oil prices (albeit only off 0.60%), along with proximity to the US CPI print later, are likely drivers of market sentiment. Important support for Aussie futures (96.28 for 3yr and 95.51 (Sep 3 low) remain some distance away.
- Any fresh upside in US Tsy futures, could bring resistance at 95.90 into focus for the Aussie 10yr.
- AU-US 10yr government bond yield differentials remain off recent highs, last +15bps.
- Outright ACGB yields are are round 1-2bps firmer, with the back end outperforming in yield terms. The 3yr was last around 3.365%, while the 10yr is just under 4.14%.
- Earlier RBA Governor Bullock spoke on the payments system, with the monetary policy outlook not covered. We had Oct preliminary PMIs out earlier too, with manufacturing slumping to 49.7 from 51.4, although this is not a tier one release.
- Of greater focus will be on next week's Q3 CPI print due Wednesday. Headline is expected to rebound to 3.0% y/y (from 2.1%), but trimmed mean is expected to hold steady at 2.7%y/y.
- Before this, Monday evening 7:15PM AEDT we have Bullock giving a Fireside chat at the ABE dinner. Focus will obviously be on the outlook ahead of the Nov policy meeting, and whether the recent rise in the unemployment rate has shifted the central bank bias/outlook.
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JGBS: Cash Bonds Mostly Slightly Richer At Lunch
Sep-24 03:30
At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are stronger, +8 compared to settlement levels, after yesterday's holiday.
- Japan's preliminary S&P PMIs for September were below the August outcomes. Manufacturing printed at 48.4, versus 49.7 in August. The services print was 53.0, against a 53.1 prior. The composite fell to 51.1 versus 52.0 in August.
- The manufacturing print is back to lows from March of this year. We did get close to 47.0 for the index in Q1 of 2024. The detail showed output down to 47.3 from 49.8 in August. New orders were also down in the month. The US manufacturing PMI fell for Sep as well, although it remains at much higher outright levels (52.0).
- On the services side for Japan, we remain at elevated levels. There remains a decent wedge between the manufacturing and services PMIs.
- Cash US tsys are little changed in today's Asia-Pac session.
- Cash JGBs are slightly mixed across benchmarks, with yields 1.3bp lower (20-year) to 0.3bp higher (40-year). The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.9bp lower at 1.645% versus the cycle high of 1.670%.
- Swap rates are flat to 2bps lower.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI Discusses BOJ's Must Haves For Further Hikes
Sep-24 03:29
MNI discusses the BOJ's must-haves for further rate hikes. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
CHINA: Bond Futures Mixed in Morning Trade
Sep-24 03:24
- China's major bond futures are moving in mixed trade this morning as the 10-Yr bond yield is stationary at 1.80%.
- The 10-Yr is lower by -0.03 at 107.72 and moves further below all major moving averages.
- The 2-Yr is flat at 102.35 and consolidates below all major moving averages. Above is the 20-day EMA of 102.38.
