MNI Fed Preview-January 2026: Analyst Outlook

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jan2026_With_Analysts_22448bf33a.pdf This update of our January 23 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 26 January 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: See You In March None of the 31 analysts' whose previews MNI read expected a Fed rate cut at the January FOMC meeting. * Statement: Most analysts saw the description of economic conditions as largely "marked to market" at the January meeting rather than changed substantively, with the description of "moderate" growth upgraded slightly. * More substantively, some analysts saw tweaks to the description of the balance of risks, potentially including the previous editions' note that risks to employment had risen in recent months. * There were almost no expectations that forward rate guidance would be changed but JPMorgan sees the removal of the word "additional" in the sentence "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate" * Dissents: All analysts who expressed an opinion said that it was likely/certain that Gov Miran would again dissent in a dovish direction. Several speculated he could be joined by Gov Bowman and/or Gov Waller, in descending order of probability, * Future action: The MNI analyst median for expected 2026 cuts is 50bp, with a range from zero to 125bp. * The median analyst still sees the next cut coming in March, though several pushed back their easing views to later in the year after the December nonfarm payrolls data released earlier this month. * Several analysts identified June as a logical point of resumption for rate cuts as it would/could reflect the first post-FOMC meeting with a new Fed Chair.

MNI Fed Preview - January 2026: New Year, Same Divisions

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jan2026_ffe579f7da.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * The FOMC's January meeting appears poised to deliver a neutral hold, with heated debate continuing about the appropriate pace of easing over the coming year. * Divisions within the FOMC over the way forward are unlikely to have narrowed much since the December cut. The center of the Committee is likely to hold sway in maintaining an easing bias, albeit with no rush to make the next move now that rates have been brought down to within plausible estimated ranges of neutral policy. * If anything, the Committee may be even more patient now than it was 6 weeks ago. * Recent data have done little on net to affirm the case for another near-term cut, with the unemployment rate steadying and economic activity proving more resilient than expected. * With government shutdown-related distortions failing to clarify the overall picture, Chair Powell is likely to repeat his message from the December meeting that the FOMC is "well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves", with plenty of data to consider before the next decision in March. * The new Statement is likely to see only limited changes, but should acknowledge both reduced near-term concerns over the labor market as well as the above-expected economic activity since the last meeting. It will maintain the rather vague forward guidance adopted in December that the "extent and timing" of future easing will depend on the data. * That would likely be taken in stride by rate markets which price only around a 3% implied probability of a 4th consecutive 25bp cut, with the next easing expected only by July.

MNI Fed Preview - December 2025: Winter Of Discontent

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2025_With_Analysts_4d5a318a2b.pdf * The FOMC is expected to look through the data fog and deliver a "hawkish cut" on December 10, with a third consecutive 25bp reduction in the Fed funds rate range to 3.50-3.75%. * While a December cut is over 90% priced, a follow-up cut in January is seen as having under 30% probability, and the next easing is only fully priced by next June. * There will be the usual attention on the Summary of Economic Projections including the Dot Plot, but more attention than usual on the Statement to see how resolutely the easing bias remains. * Forward guidance is likely to be amended to reflect a more patient stance on cuts. As such the market reaction to the meeting could hinge on how Chair Powell portrays the burden of proof for the next cut. * Powell will highlight that the Committee is increasingly reluctant to ease further without additional evidence of labor market deterioration. But by the same token, he could express that's not an insurmountable obstacle, and a follow-up easing is possible in the event of incoming data before end-January. * The lack of major data since the September projections round portends only limited changes to the macro and rate forecasts. None of the end-year rate dot medians are likely to change, implying 25bp cuts in each of 2026 and 2027.

MNI Fed Preview-October 2025: Analyst Outlook

The FOMC is unanimously expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25bp at the October meeting, per 31 previews seen by MNI.