PLN: Zloty Edges Lower, Q3 GDP On Tap Tomorrow
Nov-12 09:54
EUR/PLN trades +20 pips at 4.2322, snapping a five-day losing streak. A move beyond Apr 16/Dec 25 highs of 4.3102/4.3114 would reignite bullish momentum. Bears keep an eye on May 15/Oct 22 lows of 4.2230/4.2227.
- MPC's Henryk Wnorowski said that the MPC should pause interest-rate action after the latest 25bp cut and only consider a resumption of monetary easing alongside the release of the next macroeconomic projection in March. In his view, there is a need to monitor the impact of previous decisions and make sure that the disinflationary trend is sustainable.
- Statistics Poland will release flash Q3 GDP tomorrow morning, with Bloomberg consensus looking for a 3.7% expansion in Y/Y terms. The NBP sees potential for a 3.5-3.6% Y/Y growth rate, based on high-frequency economic activity indicators released after the cut-off point of the latest official projection (+3.3%).
- The WIG Index and the blue-chip WIG20 are virtually unchanged. The WIG Energy Index has resumed losses after a more forceful sell-off last Friday, which was facilitated by the announcement of President Karol Nawrocki's legislative initiative to cut electricity prices for households.
- POLGB yields have ticked higher across the curve, last sit 0.5-1.8bp above neutral levels.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Oct-13 09:49
- EUR/USD: Oct15 $1.1600(E1.2bln); Oct16 $1.1580-00(E3.4bln)
- USD/JPY: Oct15 Y143.00($1.8bln)
- AUD/USD: Oct14 $0.6500(A$1.0bln), $0.6580-00(A$1.2bln)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Pullback Appears Corrective
Oct-13 09:40
- In the equity space, a sharp sell-off in S&P E-Minis on Friday is - for now - considered corrective. The contract has found support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6598.55. Friday’s low of 6940.25 has been defined as a key short-term support. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6812.25, the Sep 9 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
- The trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is unchanged, the direction is up and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The key support zone to monitor is 5549.76 - 5474.21, the area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 5689.00, the Oct 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
GILTS: Futures Through Next Resistance
Oct-13 09:39
{GB} GILTS: Gilts have rallied a little after trading either side of unchanged around the open, futures last +14 at 91.30, piercing resistance at 91.28.
- A fresh extension higher would expose more meaningful resistance at 91.82
- Yields 1-2bp lower, curve bull steepens.
- The impact of hope surrounding the potential for a moderation in Sino-U.S. trade tensions has worn off in recent trade, with gilts outperforming vs. Bunds by ~1bp.
- Fiscal headlines remain front and centre domestically.
- The IFS has noted that “It would be difficult, but not impossible, for the Chancellor to raise tens of billions of pounds more revenue without breaking Labour’s manifesto promise”:
- We have covered the remainder of the major fiscal stories from the weekend in another bullet.
- SONIA futures flat to +4.0, BoE-dated OIS prices ~6bp of easing through year-end, which we believe underestimates the odds of a Q4 cut.
- BoE’s Greene & Mann will speak later today.
- More focus will be placed on the labour market data & comments from BoE Governor Bailey (both due Tuesday).
Trending Top
Jan-30 21:43
Jan-30 21:11
