RUSSIA: Zelensky Accuses Russia of Rejecting Ceasefire
Mar-19 08:37
- Local press continue to focus on the phone call held between US President Trump and Russian President Putin yesterday. Putin agreed with Trump to limit attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure while demanding the US and other nations stop the flow of weapons and intelligence to Ukraine.
- CNN report that Ukraine and Russia have since exchanged aerial attacks overnight, just hours after the phone call, with the Russian attacks targeting civilian infrastructure including a hospital and an electricity system powering the railways in Ukraine’s central Dnipropetrovsk region, according to officials. "Today, Putin effectively rejected the proposal for a full ceasefire," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
- The key topic at the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs annual congress on Tuesday was the return of foreign companies to Russia. President Putin, who attended the event, assured business leaders that this would be the case, Vedomosti report, noting that Russian businesses have filled market niches vacated by Western companies, investing money, creating jobs and developing technology.
- PPI and weekly CPI data are due for release this afternoon, with focus then turning to the CBR rate decision Friday. Our full preview for that meeting will be released later today.
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call spread buyer
Feb-17 08:37
ERM5 98.25/98.37cs, bought for 0.25 in 17k.
GILTS: Futures Gap Lower At The Open; Feb 12 Low Intact For Now
Feb-17 08:33
Gilt futures gap lower at the open, catching up with weakness in core EGBs and posting fresh session lows of 92.53 at typing (-77 ticks today).
- Zooming out, a bull cycle is still in play and the pullback from the Feb 6 high appears corrective for now. The Feb 12 low at 92.31 remains intact, while firm resistance is the Feb 10 high at 93.71.
- The cash curve has bear steepened, with yields 5-7bps higher. 10-year yields are up to 4.57%, just short of last Wednesday’s high of 4.58%. The 10-year Gilt/Bund spread has widened 1bp to 208bps.
- For more colour on weekend news and this week’s calendar, see our morning STIR note above.
BONDS: Treasuries and Gilt Roll view
Feb-17 08:31
Most Desks will be starting to look at rolling their March Positions into June, pace should be expected to pick up towards the end of the Week, and will be completed next Week.
JPM:
- WNA: Bullish.
- USA: Bullish.
- UXY: Mildly bearish.
- TYA: Mildly bearish.
- FVA: Bearish.
- TUA: Bearish.
UBS:
- UBS recommend selling the Gilt March future and buying the June future "owing to valuations, a high switch potential and given positioning appears on the long side."
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