OIL PRODUCTS: Total Russian Refined Product Shipments Dip in Early December
Dec-19 15:07
Total Russian refined product exports fell about 1% from the November average to about 1.98mb/d in the first 15 days of December, according to Vortexa data cited by Bloomberg.
- The dip reflects logistical challenges caused by drone strike and western sanctions.
- Exports from Baltic ports rose to the highest since February, driven by diesel from Primorsk while Black Sea exports were suppressed by disruption from drone strikes.
- Diesel and gasoil exports rose 12% on the month to a five-month high of 840kb/d as Baltic port shipments rose 37%. Exports to Turkey and Brazil remain strong.
- Naphtha shipments fell 9% to 469kb/d, and with no gasoline or blending component exports.
- Fuel oil shipments fell 8% to 595kb/d while refinery feedstocks exports, including vacuum gasoil, rose to 40kb/d.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update - No Jumbos Today
Nov-19 15:07
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 11/19 $Benchmark Avalon Bay 5Y +95a
- 11/19 $500M VSP Optical WNG 10Y +170
- 11/19 $Benchmark Element Fleet 5Y +125a
- 11/19 $Benchmark SMBC Aviation 10Y +145a
- 11/19 $500M FIBRA Prologis WNG 10Y +170a
- 11/19 $Benchmark EOG Resources +5Y, 30Y tap
- 11/19 $Benchmark Bangkok Bank 5Y +115a, 10Y +130a
- 11/19 $Benchmark Western Alliance Bank 10NC5 +312a
- 11/19 $Benchmark Baxter 3Y +130a, 5Y +155a, 10Y +185a
- 11/19 $Benchmark First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) investor calls
US DATA: Atlanta Fed GDPNow Sees Cycle High 4.2% GDP In Q3
Nov-19 15:06
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q3 is now up to a cycle high 4.23% Q/Q SAAR - up from 4.05% prior. That is the highest estimate yet for Q3 from the Atlanta Fed, and if their model is correct, it would be the strongest since Q3 2023.
- "After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.9 percent to 4.8 percent was more than offset by an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.57 percentage points to 0.78 percentage points."
- Indeed inventories and net exports make up 1.11pp of that growth, so final domestic demand is running closer to 3%, but apart from weak structure (both residential and nonresidential) investment, the economy looks to be firing on all cylinders with PCE estimated to grow 3.4% Q/Q SAAR.
- As noted earlier, MNI expects the BEA to be able to provide a Q3 advance GDP estimate by early December.
BONDS: Equity Bid Weighs
Nov-19 15:05
Recent weakness in core global FI seems largely tied to a bid in equities through the Wall St. cash open.
- Firmer Atlanta Fed GDPNow also a potential factor.
- Long end gilts hold wider vs. both German & U.S. peers in light of the ongoing speculation surrounding the future of PM Starmer.
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