BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 118.600 High Oct 24
- RES 3: 118.360 High Oct 28
- RES 2: 118.270 High Nov 5
- RES 1: 118.092/180 50-day EMA / High Nov 21
- PRICE: 118.050 @ 05:59 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 117.790 Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.710 Low Oct 6
- SUP 3: 117.630 Low Oct 1
- SUP 4: 117.470 Low Sep 15 and a key support
The short-term trend theme in Bobl futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Gains appear corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. Note that 117.824, the 76.4% retracement, has been pierced. A resumption of the downleg would open 117.630, the Oct 1 low. Initial firm resistance is at 118.092, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it is required to signal a potential reversal.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25
- PRICE: 0.8726 @ 06:14 BST Oct 27
- SUP 1: 0.8683/8656 50-day EMA / Low Aug 10
- SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
- SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
The underlying trend condition in EURGBP is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross is trading above support. Attention is on key resistance at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high and bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The first support to monitor lies at 0.8683, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 0.8633, the Sep 15 low.
BUND TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 130.99 76.4% retracement of Jun 13 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: 130.80 High Jun 13 and key resistance
- RES 2: 130.63 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 10 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 130.07/59 High Oct 24 / 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 129.30 @ 05:52 BST Oct 27
- SUP 1: 129.29 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 129.04 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 Bull leg
- SUP 4: 128.25 Low Oct 7
Bund futures traded sharply lower last week and the contract maintains a softer tone, for now. The move down is considered corrective and is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial key support at 129.43, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. This exposes the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.06. For bulls, a reversal would refocus attention of the key resistance at 130.59, the Oct 17 high.
THAILAND: Thailand Sees Strong Global Demand For Its Products
September customs export growth was significantly stronger than Bloomberg consensus expected rising 19.0% y/y after 5.8%, highest since March 2022. While imports were also higher up 17.2% y/y following 15.8%, the pickup in shipments was enough to return the merchandise trade balance to surplus at $1275mn after August’s deficit of $1964mn. The Bank of Thailand expects slower exports in H2 to be a drive of slower GDP growth. The full goods trade data are released Friday.
- The smoother 3-month average rates of import and export growth were in line with the recent trend.
Thailand customs trade y/y% 3-month moving average
- 19% US import duties don’t appear to have impacted exports yet with shipments to the US up 35% y/y in September driven by telecoms & tech-related items.
- Thai imports from China have been elevated in 2025 running at over 22% y/y on average and so some of this growth to the US may reflect a channelling of goods through Thailand to avoid higher tariffs, especially as Thai domestic demand has been soft. In its agreement with the US, Thailand said it would work to prevent this redirection.
- The Ministry of Commerce noted that the strong export result was due to strong demand from Thailand’s major destinations and less global uncertainty following US trade deals across the globe.
