BTP TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 120.52 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 119.40 @ Close Sep 3
• SUP 1: 119.30 Low Sep 2         
• SUP 2: 118.87 Low May 21
• SUP 3: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 
• SUP 4: 118.24 1.618 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 25 - Aug 5 price swing  

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the direction remains up. However, for now, a bear cycle is in play. The move down this week reinforces current short-term conditions. The contract has traded through a key support at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. The clear break of this level highlights a range breakout and reinforces a bear cycle. This opens 118.87, the May 21 low. Initial firm resistance is at 120.52, the 50-day EMA. 

Finland has announced it will be looking to sell a combined maximum of E2.0bln of the following RFTBs at its auction next Tuesday, September 9:

• the 8-month May 13, 2026 RFTB
• the new 11-month Aug 13, 2026 RFTB
   

• RES 4: 5568.00 High Mar 6
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont) 
• RES 2: 5445.00/5522.00 High Aug 26 / 22
• RES 1: 5392.75 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 5317.00 @ 06:42 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 5292.00 Low Sep 2 
• SUP 2: 5280.00 Low Aug 7  
• SUP 3: 5250.02 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 22 rally  
• SUP 4: 5166.00 Low Aug 1 and key support  

The primary trend set-up in Eurostoxx 50 futures is bullish and the pullback from the Aug 22 high appears corrective. However, the contract has breached 5372.85, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 5392.75, the 20-day EMA.