BTP TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 121.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 120.61 High Aug 14
- RES 1: 120.51 High Sep 10
- PRICE: 120.42 @ Close Sep 11
- SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
- SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing
The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish. The strong rally that started Sep 3 highlights a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Germany is due to hold auctions this week, while Finland has already held an auction. We pencil in issuance of just E6.5bln in the week, down from E24.5bln last week.
- Germany will come to the market today with E5bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z056).
- Cancelled auction: The MEF has announced that it will not hold the 3/7/15+ year BTP auction that had been scheduled for 13 August. This is in line with recent convention and is not unexpected. The MEF noted that this decision was taken “considering the cash management activity”.
NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees E43.9bln of redemptions, of which E30.5bln is from a formerly 10-year Bund and E13.4bln from a formerly 3-year BTP. Coupon payments for the week total E6.3bln of which E5.5bln are German and E0.8bln are Italian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week strongly negative at negative E43.8bln, versus positive E23.5bln last week.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Former BoJ Official Shares Policy Rate Outlook
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 11 Aug
Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Belgium have sold bills this week. We expect issuance to have been E22.4bln in first round operations, down from E28.1bln last week.
