The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish. The strong rally from last week’s low highlights a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.
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From the ONS: "RTI payrolled employees decreased by 26,000 between May and June 2025"
This is an upward revision from -41k flash. Seems broadly in line with the range of revision estimates we had seen ahead of the release.
At first glance, private sector regular pay looks in line with expectations at 4.8% Y/Y.
Unemployment rate at 4.7% is in line with Bloomberg consensus, but the analyst previews MNI had seen had suggested some upside risks.
PAYE payrolls monthly change smaller than expected, but still waiting on the revision to last months data.
Some modest sterling strength seen post release, with EURGBP falling 0.1% or so. Initial glance of the data doesn't seem enough to meaningfully shift the outlook following last weeks BOE meeting. More to follow.