BTP TECHS: (Z5) Monitoring Resistance

Sep-11 06:16
  • RES 4: 121.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 3: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 120.61 High Aug 14 
  • RES 1: 120.51 High Sep 10
  • PRICE: 120.33 @ Close Sep 10
  • SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
  • SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
  • SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
  • SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish.  The strong rally from last week’s low highlights a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.

Historical bullets

UK DATA: June PAYE-RTI Payrolls Revision Seems In Line With Estimates

Aug-12 06:06

From the ONS: "RTI payrolled employees decreased by 26,000 between May and June 2025"

This is an upward revision from -41k flash. Seems broadly in line with the range of revision estimates we had seen ahead of the release.

UK DATA: Labour Market Data Looks In Line At First Glance

Aug-12 06:04

At first glance, private sector regular pay looks in line with expectations at 4.8% Y/Y.

Unemployment rate at 4.7% is in line with Bloomberg consensus, but the analyst previews MNI had seen had suggested some upside risks.

PAYE payrolls monthly change smaller than expected, but still waiting on the revision to last months data.

Some modest sterling strength seen post release, with EURGBP falling 0.1% or so. Initial glance of the data doesn't seem enough to meaningfully shift the outlook following last weeks BOE meeting. More to follow.

MNI: UK JUL CLAIMANT CHG -6200

Aug-12 06:00
  • MNI: UK JUL CLAIMANT CHG -6200
  • UK JUL CLAIMANT RATE +4.4%
  • UK JUN AVE WEEKLY EARNINGS +4.6% YY
  • UK JUN AVE WEEKLY EARNINGS EX-BONUS +5% YY