JGB TECHS: (Z5) Just Off Cycle Lows

• RES 3: 140.08 High Jun 13  
• RES 2: 139.05 High Aug 4 
• RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 135.90 @ 16:17 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 135.58 - Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 135.39 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 4 - Sep 2 - Sep 8 swing (cont.)
• SUP 3: 134.69 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 4 - Sep 2 - Sep 8 swing (cont.)  

Prices started last week well, growing the gap with next support into the 135.61 Oct 08 low. Despite this stability, prices remain inside the firm downtrend that’s dominated prices since mid-September, and prices will need to challenge resistance before signaling any broader reversal. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.30, the Sep 8 high. Further weakness would open 135.39 next, a Fibonacci projection. 

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) will today sell A$1200mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond. The line was last sold on 17 September 2025 for A$1200mn. The line was opened via syndication on 24 July 2024 for A$11.5bn. Bidding is likely to be shaped by several key factors: 

• The current outright yield is around 10bps higher than at the previous auction and approximately 40bps lower than the peak in late 2024.  
• The 3/10 yield curve is around 10bps flatter than the previous auction level and sits around 50bps below its recent high.
• On the positive side, the auction comes amid stronger sentiment toward longer-dated global bonds.
• Moreover, the line is included in the XM basket.

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) will today sell A$1200mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond. The line was last sold on 17 September 2025 for A$1200mn. The line was opened via syndication on 24 July 2024 for A$11.5bn. 

• The last sale drew an average yield of 4.2384%, at a high yield of 4.2400% and was covered 2.1583x. There were 22 bidders, 13 of which were successful and 5 were allocated in full. The amount allotted at the highest yield as a percentage of the amount bid at that yield was 66.1%.
• This week's ACGB supply is at the top of the recent average weekly issuance of $1500-2200mn, with A$800mn of the 1.75% 21 November 2032 bond on Friday.
• During the first half of 2025-26, the AOFM plans to: issue a new October 2036 Treasury Bond (by syndication and subject to market conditions); conduct 2 Treasury Bond tenders most weeks; hold 1-2 Treasury Indexed Bond tenders each month.
• Issuance of Treasury Bonds (including Green Treasury Bonds) in 2025-26 is expected to be around $150 billion. Issuance of Treasury Indexed Bonds in 2025-26 is expected to be between $2 billion and $3 billion. 
• Results are due at 0000 GMT / 1100 AEST.