BTP TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Cycle

2.75% Dec-32 EU-bond

• Guidance: MS + 36bps area
• Size: E5bln (MNI expected E4-5bln)

New 15-year Dec-2040 

• Guidance: MS + 77bps area
• Size: E5bln (MNI expects E5-6bln)
• ISIN: TBC
• Coupon: Long first
• Maturity: 12 December 2040

For both:

• JLMs: BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank, DZ BANK and Santander
• Settlement: 14 October 2025 (T+5)
• Timing: Books open, pricing later today

From market source / MNI colour

Gold has registered another fresh all-time high at $3,977.4/oz today, before a pullback to trade -$5/oz at $3,955/oz at typing.

• Fresh extension higher would target projection resistance ($3,987.3/oz), which protects psychological resistance at $4,000/oz
• Our technical analyst stresses that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup and price continues to appreciate despite RSI operating in overbought territory since early September. Furthermore, the metal shows little sign of weakness during any pullbacks in spot, underscoring the bullish narrative.
• Geopolitical worry, Fed independence risk, expectations for further Fed easing, ETF & official account demand and broader concerns re: the potential for further USD weakness continue to present the central pillars of the bullish narrative.
• Goldman Sachs have lifted their December ‘26 gold price forecast to $4,900/oz ($4,300/oz prior), suggesting that “inflows driving the 17% rally since August 26 - Western ETF inflows and likely central bank buying - are sticky” in their pricing framework, “in contrast, noisier speculative positioning has remained broadly stable”.
• They also see the risks to their “upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above rates-implied estimates”.
• We will update on broader positioning in the gold market later today.

• RES 4: $49.804 - All-time high Apr 2011 and major resistance  
• RES 3: $49.444 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $49.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $48.838 - 3.000 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing     
• PRICE: $48.380 @ 08:05 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: $45.913/44.764 - Low Oct 2 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $41.872 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $40.404 - Low Sep 4   
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded to a fresh cycle on Monday, as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $48.838 next, a 3.000 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards the $49.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $44.764, the 20-day EMA.