BTP TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.12 @ Close Nov 5
- SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 120.60 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7
The trend conditions in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness is - for now - considered corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.
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EU-BOND SYNDICATION: 2.75% Dec-32 / New 15-year Dec-40 EU-bond: Books open
2.75% Dec-32 EU-bond
- Guidance: MS + 36bps area
- Size: E5bln (MNI expected E4-5bln)
New 15-year Dec-2040
- Guidance: MS + 77bps area
- Size: E5bln (MNI expects E5-6bln)
- ISIN: TBC
- Coupon: Long first
- Maturity: 12 December 2040
For both:
- JLMs: BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank, DZ BANK and Santander
- Settlement: 14 October 2025 (T+5)
- Timing: Books open, pricing later today
From market source / MNI colour
GOLD: Another Fresh All-Time High Before A Pullback To Little Changed
Gold has registered another fresh all-time high at $3,977.4/oz today, before a pullback to trade -$5/oz at $3,955/oz at typing.
- Fresh extension higher would target projection resistance ($3,987.3/oz), which protects psychological resistance at $4,000/oz
- Our technical analyst stresses that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup and price continues to appreciate despite RSI operating in overbought territory since early September. Furthermore, the metal shows little sign of weakness during any pullbacks in spot, underscoring the bullish narrative.
- Geopolitical worry, Fed independence risk, expectations for further Fed easing, ETF & official account demand and broader concerns re: the potential for further USD weakness continue to present the central pillars of the bullish narrative.
- Goldman Sachs have lifted their December ‘26 gold price forecast to $4,900/oz ($4,300/oz prior), suggesting that “inflows driving the 17% rally since August 26 - Western ETF inflows and likely central bank buying - are sticky” in their pricing framework, “in contrast, noisier speculative positioning has remained broadly stable”.
- They also see the risks to their “upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above rates-implied estimates”.
- We will update on broader positioning in the gold market later today.
SILVER TECHS: Bull Wave
- RES 4: $49.804 - All-time high Apr 2011 and major resistance
- RES 3: $49.444 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: $49.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $48.838 - 3.000 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- PRICE: $48.380 @ 08:05 BST Oct 7
- SUP 1: $45.913/44.764 - Low Oct 2 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $41.872 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $40.404 - Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded to a fresh cycle on Monday, as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $48.838 next, a 3.000 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards the $49.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $44.764, the 20-day EMA.
