BTP TECHS: (Z5) Breach Of Support Highlights Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6468.50 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger     
• PRICE: 6347.50 @ 07:11 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 6244.36 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 2: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
• SUP 3: 6213.75 50% retracement of Jun - Aug Upleg
• SUP 4: 6203.65 50-day EMA 

Equities sold off sharply Friday on the back of the soft NFP print - pushing prices through mid-July lows in the process. This puts price well clear of support at the 20-day EMA, at 6325.25, signalling scope for a deeper retracement toward the 50-day EMA at 6203.65. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend remains up, leaving key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 6468.50, the Jul 31 high.

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5344.79/5449.00 50-day EMA / High Jul 27   
• PRICE: 5293.00 @ 07:05 BST Aug 6 
• SUP 1: 5166.00 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 5164.86 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures faltered Friday, with short-term weakness resulting in a break of the bear trigger. Having shown below 5194.00, the Jun 23 low, the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 becomes the area of downside interest. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle.

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.70 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 121.48 @ 07:04 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been corrective. A doji candle on Jul 25 highlights a potential bullish reversal. A continuation higher would open 121.73, the Jul 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this latter level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.59, the Jul 25 low.