JGB TECHS: (Z5) Bounce Fades
- RES 3: 140.08 High Jun 13
- RES 2: 139.05 High Aug 4
- RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 136.04 @ 15:35 BST Oct 23
- SUP 1: 135.61 - Low Oct 08
- SUP 2: 135.39 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 4 - Sep 2 - Sep 8 swing (cont.)
- SUP 3: 134.69 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 4 - Sep 2 - Sep 8 swing (cont.)
Prices surged last week, in sympathy with global bond markets, helping the price rally to a high of 136.64. This rally proved short-lived, however, as domestic fiscal concerns continue to weigh on prices. This affirms the firm downtrend that’s dominated prices since mid-September, and prices will need to challenge resistance before signaling any broader reversal. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.30, the Sep 8 high. The latest sell-off, however, resulted in a break of support at 136.19, the Sep 4 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 135.39 next, a Fibonacci projection.
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JPY: USD/JPY - No Direction, In The Middle Of The Range
The overnight range was 147.46 - 147.93, Asia is currently trading around 147.60. USD/JPY stalled above 148.00 and continues to chop around sideways without really going anywhere. The USD traded sideways with little clear direction overnight. The price is still in the middle of its recent 146-149 range, and we need a convincing break on either side to see some clearer direction again. Neither the FOMC nor the BOJ were able to provide any clarity, the market will start turning its focus towards payrolls which seems a lifetime away.
- MNI JAPAN: LDP Candidates Support New Parties In Coalition, No Signal Of Which Ones. Speaking at a joint press conference earlier today, all five candidates for the presidency of the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) voiced their support for the prospect of expanding the governing coalition beyond the LDP and its long-term partner, the centrist social-conservative Komeito party.
- Bloomberg - “Japan’s Takaichi Says More Bond Issuance May Become Unavoidable. Japan will need to rely on excess tax revenue to fight back against rising consumer prices, but issuing government bonds “could become unavoidable if the situation calls for it,” said Sanae Takaichi, a frontrunner in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race.”
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 145.00($1.52b), 148.50($728m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 145.00($1.09b Sept 26), 150.00($922m Sept 25) - BBG.
- CFTC data shows last week asset managers reduced their JPY longs slightly +71162( Last +87239), leveraged funds again used the dip to add to their short position believing the support will continue to hold -58811(Last -49951).
- Data/Event : S&P Global Japan PMI’s, Machine Tool Orders YoY
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot 2H Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
- Vietnam To Sell VND 9.0Tln 2035 Bonds; (TD2535028)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 3.0Tln 2040 Bonds; (TD2540037)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 1.0Tln 2030 Bonds; (TD2530010)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2055 Bonds; (TD2555052)
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 367D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 31D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 94D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 181D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 273D SUVBI Bills
- India to Sell INR60bn 182-Day Bills
- India to Sell INR100bn 91-Day Bills
- India to Sell INR50bn 364-Day Bills
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia
| 0300GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | South Korea Retail Sales YoY AUGUST |
| 0300GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | South Korea Department Store Sales YoY AUGUST |
| 0300GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | South Korea Discount Store Sales YoY AUGUST |
| 0430GMT | 1130HKT | 1330AEDT | Thailand Customs Exports YoY AUGUST |
| 0430GMT | 1130HKT | 1330AEDT | Thailand Customs Imports YoY AUGUST |
| 0430GMT | 1130HKT | 1330AEDT | Thailand Customs Trade Balance AUGUST |
| 0900GMT | 1600HKT | 1800AEDT | Taiwan Industrial Production YoY |
source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
