JGB TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Trend Sequence Intact
Sep-30 22:45
- RES 3: 140.08 High Jun 13
- RES 2: 139.05 High Aug 4
- RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 135.85 @ 16:25 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 135.67 - Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 135.39 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 4 - Sep 2 - Sep 8 swing (cont.)
- SUP 3: 134.69 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 4 - Sep 2 - Sep 8 swing (cont.)
A bear threat in JGB futures remains present and the contract has pulled back from its recent highs. The latest sell-off has also resulted in a break of support at 136.19, the Sep 4 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 135.39 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.30, the Sep 8 high.
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ASIA: Government Issuance Today
Aug-31 22:40
- Bank of Korea to Sell KRW800bn 91-Day Bonds
- South Korea to Sell KRW2.7tn 2-Year Bonds
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.5Bln 182D Bills (PH0000060030)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.5Bln 91D Bills (PH0000059636)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 364D Bills (PH0000061012)
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
Aug-31 22:39
| 0100GMT | 0800HKT | 1000AEDT | South Korea Exports YoY August |
| 0100GMT | 0800HKT | 1000AEDT | South Korea Trade Balance August |
| 0100GMT | 0800HKT | 1000AEDT | South Korea Imports YoY August |
| 0130GMT | 0830HKT | 1030AEDT | S&P Global Indonesia PMI Mfg August |
| 0130GMT | 0830HKT | 1030AEDT | S&P Global South Korea PMI Mfg August |
| 0130GMT | 0830HKT | 1030AEDT | S&P Global Philippines PMI Mfg August |
| 0130GMT | 0830HKT | 1030AEDT | S&P Global Thailand PMI Mfg August |
| 0130GMT | 0830HKT | 1030AEDT | S&P Global Taiwan PMI Mfg August |
| 0245GMT | 0945HKT | 1145AEDT | RatingDog China PMI Mfg August |
| 0500GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Indonesia Imports YoY JULY |
| 0500GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Indonesia Exports YoY JULY |
| 0500GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Indonesia Trade Balance July |
| 0500GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Indonesia CPI YoY August |
| 0500GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Indonesia CPI Core YoY July |
| 0530GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Indonesia CPI NSA MoM July |
| 0530GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | HSBC India PMI Mfg August F |
| 0530GMT | 1630HKT | 1830AEDT | Hong Kong Retail Sales Value F |
| 0530GMT | 1630HKT | 1830AEDT | Hong Kong Retail Sales Volume F |
CNH: USD/CNH Sees Selling Interest Above 7.1300, Another PMI Update Today
Aug-31 22:37
USD/CNH tracks near 7.1220 in early Monday dealings. The pair was little changed in aggregate for Friday's session, with a move above 7.1300 drawing selling interest. Spot USD/CNY finished up at 7.1308. The CNY CFETS basket tracker was little changed on Friday, last at 96.57.
- For USD/CNH technicals, downside risks remain in play after last week's break lower. Arguably there isn't much in the much of resistance to early Nov lows from 2024. We have 7.0906 and 7.0869 as the two levels to be mindful of. The 7.1400/7.1500region is likely to draw selling interest on any rebounds, while the declining 20-day EMA is near 7.1620.
- Focus will remain on the USD/CNY fixing, which fell 0.41% last week, despite little change in broader USD indices for the same period. Market sentiment is focused on whether the authorities are now more comfortably with stronger CNY levels, after a largely stable backdrop in recent months. Friday's fixing was 7.1030.
- Over the weekend, we had the official PMIs for August print. The manufacturing outcome was 49.4 versus 49.5 forecast and 49.3 prior. The services PMI printed at 50.3, versus 50.2 forecast (50.1 prior). Today we get the Rating Dog manufacturing PMI, which is sourced by S&P Global. The market consensus is for a 49.8 outcome, with July printing at 49.5.
- Local equities finished last week firmly, with the CSI 300 up a further 0.74% (closing near 4500), while in Friday US trade, the Golden Dragon Index rose 1.55%.
