CANADA DATA: Youth Joblessness Drop Stands Out In Unemployment Improvement
Nov-07 14:28
The unemployment rate's unexpected drop in October to 6.88% from 7.10% prior - almost fully reversing the 0.24pp rise over the previous 3 months - came with both a rise in the labour force and a drop in the number of unemployed, adding to the solid tone from the LFS report.
- The labour force picked up 17k, slower than September's 72k gain (which was the highest of the year) but continuing to expand after a combined 64k contraction in Jul-Aug.
- Slower labour force growth amid a tighter immigration regime was one factor expected to keep a lid on the jobless rate, and indeed the 1.7% Y/Y rise for a 2nd consecutive month is well down from 3+ as of mid-2024. But for October at least, the raw number of unemployed fell 49k - the biggest such fall since June 2022.
- The overall participation rate was steady at 65.25%, with the employment rate up to 60.8%, up from 60.6% and a 4-month high.
- The beleaguered youth segment (15-24) saw the unemployment rate drop to 14.10% from 14.66% (which was the highest ex-pandemic since 2010), for the lowest rate since March, even as participation ticked up to a 4-month high. This segment of the population fell for the 2nd consecutive month, by 3.8k, though the labour force in this segment rose for a 3rd consecutive month and employment rose 20.6k for the biggest rise since January.
- Not to be outdone, prime-age unemployment fell for a 2nd consecutive month, to 5.83% from 5.98% to set a 3-month low. The prime participation rate rose to 88.65%, the 2nd highest figure in 18 months.
- And 55+ unemployment reversed September's jump, falling to 5.29% form 5.52% though participation dipped a little here (employment rate remained steady).
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FRANCE: Rpts-Lecornu Could Be Reappointed; Wider Deficit Targets To Pass Budget
Oct-08 14:20
France's political environment remains in a state of uncertainty ahead of caretaker PM Sebastien Lecornu's appearance on France 2 this evening at 20:00CET (14:00ET, 19:00BST). Earlier, Lecornu claimed that the prospect of a dissolution of parliament was fading. The fact that it is Lecornu speaking, and not President Emmanuel Macron, may lend credence to this view. It would be the head of state speaking to announce a dissolution.
- Instead, after meeting this afternoon with figures from the centrist/centre-right 'presidential bloc', Lecornu will hold talks with Macron at ~18:00CET on the political situation.
- Le Parisien reports that "According to our information, one scenario is holding the upper hand more than ever in recent hours: a reappointment of Lecornu [...]. "this would allow the president to [buy some] time and perhaps pass a budget before the end of the year, because that remains the priority," explains a senior figure in the executive."
- A major issue remains the prospect of the suspension of the 2023 pension reforms. A senior figure from the conservative Les Republicains has warned, "We don't see how the right could not censor a government that reverses the pension reform."
- Le Monde notes, the caretaker PM said earlier, "The public deficit target must be kept below 5%" in the next budget, or "between 4.7% and 5%." [...] The 5% figure is striking. It means that Sébastien Lecornu is prepared for the public deficit to fall by only 0.4 points of GDP in 2026, half the amount targeted by François Bayrou." A softer stance on fiscal consolidation would also be a sign of efforts to bring the Socialists on board.
BONDS: BTP/Bund edges below 80.00bps
Oct-08 14:17
- The BTP/Bund spread is slowly edging below the 80bps level as the Italian 10yr Futures holds onto more gains than the German Bund.
- Next immediate support comes at ~77.9bps, the September low.
GOLD: Bulls Deepen Control, TD Cautious But Bullish After Break Above $4,000/oz
Oct-08 14:16
Spot gold registered a fresh all-time high of $4,049.6/oz before backing off to ~$4.040/oz.
- The break above $4,000/oz further reinforces the recent uptrend.
- Furthermore, our technical analyst notes that momentum studies highlight a condition known as momentum drag - where momentum remains in overbought territory and moves sideways - a bullish signal.
- The next projection resistance level comes in at $4,074.5/oz.
- TD Securities caution that “given the speed and magnitude of the rally since mid-August, which saw the gold rally nearly 20%, there is a risk that CTAs and others may be tempted to take some profits, as the "perfect" environment seldom holds consistently. Gold looks overbought, which suggests that anything that may question the speed of the Fed's easing, or an increase in volatility, could generate a robust downside. This could see a significant unwind of the late-summer rally in the relative near-term”.
- However, they ultimately remain bullish, noting that while there could be a “drop off recent highs, we expect average price to reach a new record north of $4,400/oz in the first six months of 2026, as the Fed eases into a higher inflation environment, official sector keeps buying and discretionary funds again position long”.
