US NATGAS: Western Canada Natgas Fundamentals

0NZ5 96.70/96.90 call spread (vs 62+) 22K given at 3.75.

• The 15 minute candlestick chart shows a nascent short-term uptrend building in GBPUSD, with the pair on track to post four sessions of higher highs and higher lows. The rally has been capped so far at 1.3190, the 50% retracement for the Oct28 - Nov4 downleg, but a break here opens 1.3285 as the interim target ahead of 1.3369 - a move that will likely be undeterred by the run of BoE speakers this week.
• We see the speeches scheduled from Lombardelli today, Greene Tuesday, Pill Wednesday (and Greene again on Thursday) as unlikely to be market moving given the BoE's new communication style in last week's minutes - in which each member's views were cleanly presented and removing an element of uncertainty before public appearances.
• With a Dec rate cut not far off 75% priced, this week's jobs and GDP data presents only an interim risk, making the November 26th Budget more consequential into the end of the year. We noted last week that vol markets were well priced for GBP to remain structurally volatile even beyond Reeves' Budget and into 2026 - leaving spot EURGBP again more closely tied to 12-month out rate expectations rather than front-month contracts capturing the year-end BoE-ECB rate differential.
• As such, a more restrictive UK Budget later this month (for example, if all floated measures from an income tax rise to stricter pension contribution rules are enacted) could clear markets to price nearer to three 25bps rate cuts in the next 12 months - posing additional upside risks to EURGBP. 

• In the FI space, a short-term bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact. Recent weakness undermines a recent bull theme and the contract has cleared a number of important support points. The 50-day EMA, at 129.14, has been cleared and price is through 128.92, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. Sights are on 128.52, the 76.4% retracement. Resistance is at 129.33, the 20-day EMA.
• The trend structure in Gilt futures remains bullish and a recent shallow correction reinforces this theme - for now. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch lies at 92.98, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper correction and allow a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Support at the 50-day EMA lies at 92.26. The bull trigger is 93.98, the Nov 4 high.