US NATGAS: Western Canada Natgas Fundamentals
Dec-10 12:57
WCSB fundamentals are largely holding flat overnight, with a slight reduction in exports to the Midwest and Northeast and cooler US weather moderates. Regional demand is expected to strengthen over the next week as cooler than normal weather hits Calgary starting tomorrow.
- Calgary week ahead weather forecasts are calling for cooler than normal weather. Calgary cumulative HDDs decreased by 1.1 compared with the prior forecast.
- Calgary cumulative HDDs count for the next 5 days is 236.05, up 21.52 days from the 10-year normal, while the count for the next 14 days is 74.03, up 83.75 days from the 10-year normal.
- Vancouver cumulative HDDs count for the next 5 days is 83.23, down 44.82 days from the 10-year normal, while the count for the next 14 days is 43.34, down 39.6 days from the 10-year normal.
- Western Canada demand was 8.1 Bcf/d yesterday, down 0.1 Bcf/d from the prior week and down 0.5 Bcf/d from last month.
- AB outflows to SK are 7 Bcf/d today, down 0.01 Bcf/d from yesterday and down 0.1 Bcf/d from last week.
- Alliance US Exports reached 1.9 Bcf/d today, up 0.04 Bcf/d from yesterday and up 0.01 Bcf/d from last week.
- Northern Border US Exports are 0.5 Bcf/d today, up 0.03 Bcf/d from yesterday and down 0.08 Bcf/d from last week.
- Canadian exports to the Midwest are 2.1 Bcf/d today, down 0.04 Bcf/d from yesterday and down 0.05 Bcf/d from last week.
- Canadian net exports to the Northeast are 2.5 Bcf/d today, down 0.04 Bcf/d from yesterday and up 0.01 Bcf/d from last week.
- BC exports to the US PNW are 3.1 Bcf/d today, flat 0 Bcf/d from yesterday and flat 0 Bcf/d from last week.
- All fundamentals data is BNEF. Current figures as of publishing.
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GBP: Short-term Uptrend Unlikely to be Deterred by BoEspeak or This Week's Data
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Mode In Bunds Still In Play
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- In the FI space, a short-term bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact. Recent weakness undermines a recent bull theme and the contract has cleared a number of important support points. The 50-day EMA, at 129.14, has been cleared and price is through 128.92, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. Sights are on 128.52, the 76.4% retracement. Resistance is at 129.33, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend structure in Gilt futures remains bullish and a recent shallow correction reinforces this theme - for now. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch lies at 92.98, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper correction and allow a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Support at the 50-day EMA lies at 92.26. The bull trigger is 93.98, the Nov 4 high.
