US NATGAS: Western Canada Natgas Fundamentals

Oct-02 13:15

Biggest moves for WCSB this morning are an increase in outflows to the Midwest, raising 452 MMcf/d overnight at Emerson 1/2 to Great Lakes Gas Transmission. Northern Border flows continue to be at record lows today. 

  • Calgary week ahead weather forecasts are calling for cooler than normal weather. Calgary cumulative HDDs increased by 17.3 compared with the prior forecast.
  • Calgary cumulative HDDs count for the next 5 days is 99.16, up 7.18 days from the 10-year normal, while the count for the next 14 days is 307.56, up 1.6 days from the 10-year normal.
  • Vancouver cumulative HDDs count for the next 5 days is 47.68, down 4.7 days from the 10-year normal, while the count for the next 14 days is 12.11, down 47.89 days from the 10-year normal.
  • Western Canada demand was 6.4 Bcf/d yesterday, up 0.4 Bcf/d from the previous day.
  • Western Canada production was held flat yesterday.
  • AB outflows to SK are 6 Bcf/d today, up 0.48 Bcf/d from yesterday and up 0.38 Bcf/d from last week.
  • Alliance US Exports holding flat overnight at 1.7 Bcf/d today.
  • Northern Border US Exports are 0.1 Bcf/d today, up 0.02 Bcf/d from yesterday and down 0.12 Bcf/d from last week.
  • Canadian exports to the Midwest are 2 Bcf/d today, up 0.45 Bcf/d from yesterday and up 0.48 Bcf/d from last week.
  • Canadian net exports to the Northeast are 2.3 Bcf/d today, up 0.01 Bcf/d from yesterday and up 0.02 Bcf/d from last week.
  • BC exports to the US PNW are 3.5 Bcf/d today, down 0.01 Bcf/d from yesterday.
  • All fundamentals data is BNEF. Current figures as of publishing.

Historical bullets

BTP: Large Calendar spreads go through

Sep-02 13:00
  • Noted on the Eurex Roll, that the BTP was behind the pace, now some 22.72k spread trades in a 3 minutes Window.
  • The BTP spread has been lifted in the past 30 minutes, and has moved from a 89 low to a 92 high at the time of typing.

FOREX: USDJPY Extends Intra-Day Rally to 1.15%

Sep-02 12:55
  • A combination of drivers have propelled USDJPY to a fresh one month high of 148.93 on Tuesday. On the topside, 149.12 is the next resistance (61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg). However, should momentum continue to gather speed, investors will look to another retracement level at 149.81, followed by 150.92, the August 01 high and a key resistance.
  • The initial impetus for the squeeze higher came from BOJ Deputy Governor Himino, who gave no guidance on the timing or pace of potential rate hikes, providing little confidence to yen longs.
  • The dynamic of widening yield differentials underpinning the USDJPY rally was then exacerbated by a relief rally for JGB futures following a very solid 10-year auction (highest bid-to-cover since 2023) and the subsequent contrasting pressure on core fixed income that has seen US 10-year yields extend their rise to 7bp on the day.
  • Political uncertainty also played its part in the yen sell-off, as a flurry of resignations from senior leadership positions within the governing LDP have followed an internal party meeting. It remains to be seen whether this proves a sufficient sacrifice to keep Japanese PM Ishiba in office.

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU trade sources comment on Mercosur deal

Sep-02 12:52

EU trade sources comment on the probability of approval for a trade deal with Mercosur. -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com