EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C February 16

Spain, the ESM, Greece, Portugal and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, while Germany, the Netherlands and France have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E25.6bln in first round operations, up from E21.9bln last week.

• This morning, Spain will look to sell a combined E2.5-3.5bln of the 3-month Apr 10, 2026 letras and the 9-month Oct 9, 2026 letras. Note that the size range has been increased relative to prior 3/9-month bill auctions.
• Also today, the ESM will look to issue up to E1.1bln of the new 6-month Jul 23, 2026 bills.
• Tomorrow morning, Greece will look to come to the market with E400mln of the new 26-week Jul 24, 2026 GTB.
• Also tomorrow morning, Portugal  will look to sell E1.00-1.25bln of the new 12-month Jan 22, 2027 BT.
• Finally tomorrow, the EU will look to issue up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Apr 10, 2026 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Jul 3, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the 12-month Jan 8, 2027 EU-bill.

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
• RES 3: 0.8774 High Dec 19 
• RES 2: 0.8719 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8693 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8683 @ 06:34 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
• SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14

The trend structure in EURGBP remains bearish and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent consolidative phase appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces the current bear cycle. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.8620, a Fibonacci retracement point. Resistance to watch is 0.8719, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 106.925 High Dec 4    
• RES 1: 106.896 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 bear leg
• PRICE: 106.850 @ 06:10 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 106.790 Low Jan 9 / 16 and a key near-term support  
• SUP 2: 106.725 Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: 106.690 Low Dec 18 & 22
• SUP 4: 106.630 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 

A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact and the bull cycle since Dec 10 still appears corrective. However, recent gains continue to highlight a stronger short-term upward cycle. A continuation higher has exposed 106.896, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 106.630, the Dec 10 low. First key support to watch lies at 106.790, the Jan 9 and 16 low.