- Treasuries holding near lows after ISM Services data comes out higher than expected.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades -11.5 at 112-13.5 vs. 112-12.5 low, 10Y yield 4.1415% (+.0564), curves steeper - stable (2s10s +1.302 at 52.031; 5s30s +0.604 at 97.313).
- USD rallies in response to the solid prices paid data, helping EURUSD pressure earlier lows. A break below 1.1469 puts EURUSD again at the lowest level since August 1st. The response for USDJPY is again narrowing the gap with key resistance into 154.48, the weekly and reversal high.
FREIGHT: Vancouver Aframax Rates Decline: Argus
Dec-05 15:15
A sharp increase in Aframax tankers positioned on the Pacific side of the Americas has pushed down eastbound freight rates from Vancouver to Asia-Pacific, as well as short-haul rates to the US west coast, Argus said.
- The cost to ship 80,000 mt of Cold Lake crude from Vancouver to China fell to a lumpsum $3m — the lowest in over a month and down $400,000 from early December.
- Suncor fixed the Esteem Cowboy at this level for loading on Dec. 19-20, following earlier fixtures at $3.25m.
- Around 34 Aframaxes are available to load over the next three weeks, up from 22 in November, adding downward pressure.
- Despite the fall, rates remain above summer averages, supported by steady demand and the competitive pricing of Canadian heavy crudes versus Middle East grades.
- Rates for US west coast voyages also eased, though they remain above mid-November lows. Charterers continue to prefer direct Vancouver-to-Asia shipments, which avoid delays and remain cost-effective given firm VLCC rates.
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RIKSBANK: MNI Riksbank Review: November 2025 - No New Signals
Nov-05 15:13
FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE CLICK HERE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- The Riksbank’s November decision brought few surprises. The policy rate was held at 1.75% in a unanimous decision, and the guidance language was unchanged: “The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come."
- In the press conference, Governor Thedéen was careful not to give any policy hints away. He suggested that the risks to the policy rate are balanced, in line with the horizontal rate path through Q3 2026 presented in September.
- There was no material market reaction in SEK FX and rates markets.
- We continue to think that the bar to a rate move over the next 6-12 months is fairly high, but caution that the risk of a hike back to 2.00% appears greater than the risk of another cut to 1.50%.
- Analysts are in favour of the policy rate remaining at 1.75% through the course of next year, with a handful expecting one or two rate hikes in 2027.
US TSYS: Post-ISM Services Data React
Nov-05 15:04
- Treasuries holding near lows after ISM Services data comes out higher than expected.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades -11.5 at 112-13.5 vs. 112-12.5 low, 10Y yield 4.1415% (+.0564), curves steeper - stable (2s10s +1.302 at 52.031; 5s30s +0.604 at 97.313).
- USD rallies in response to the solid prices paid data, helping EURUSD pressure earlier lows. A break below 1.1469 puts EURUSD again at the lowest level since August 1st. The response for USDJPY is again narrowing the gap with key resistance into 154.48, the weekly and reversal high.
US TSYS: Post-ISM Services Data React
Nov-05 15:03
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