MEXICO: USDMXN Hovers Above Key Support Ahead of Today's Sheinbaum-Trump Meeting

Its Day 36 of the US government shutdown, officially the longest shutdown in US history. Yesterday, the Senate rejected the House-passed November 21 funding bill for a 14th time. However, there is increased optimism of an offramp following an acceleration of bipartisan talks on an emerging deal to end the impasse, as noted in yesterday’s edition of the US Daily Brief. Punchbowl reports there are now 'more than a dozen Senate Democrats' engaging with Republicans on reopening the government. In response, the most likely end date of the shutdown has been revised down from November 29 to November 13, per Polymarket. 

• However, a strong performance in yesterday’s elections may temper optimsim by validating Democrats’ assumption that voters approve of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) hardline strategy to extract concessions on healthcare.
• Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) said in a statement, “the [election] results should also give Democrats confidence that the American people have our back as we engage in the fight to protect people’s health care and save our Democracy.”
• Murphy also reposted this message from pollster Lakshya Jain: “Well, you're probably not going to see the Democrats fold on a shutdown anytime soon after tonight. No reason for them to, especially given the absolute pummeling they've just given Republicans tonight.”
• Indeed, President Trump appeared to acknowledge as such in a post on Truth Social overnight: “TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT.”  

At 08:30 ET 13:30 GMT, Trump will deliver remarks at a White House breakfast with Republican Senators. The event is likely to be broadcast on C-SPAN. Trump’s Truth suggests he will renew his drive for Senate Republicans to sidestep the filibuster, a move opposed by Senate Minority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), but supported by less institutionally-minded Republican Senators like Mike Hawley (R-MO). 

• Hawley said yesterday, "feeding 42 million Americans ... [who] have to have federal food assistance to eat" [over] "defending the arcane rules of the Senate."
• Axios reports that Trump is ready to make the lives of GOP holdouts "a living hell," one adviser told us: "He will call them at three o'clock in the morning. He will blow them up in their districts. He will call them un-American. He will call them old creatures of a dying institution," the source continued.
• A long-held view is that the shutdown will only be resolved when Trump inserts himself into negotiations. If Trump fails to convince GOP Senators to back the ‘nuclear option’ to bypass the filibuster, he may look to strike a deal with Schumer on extending ACA subsidies. A pledge from Trump to hold an ACA vote would carry more weight than the shutdown offramp under discussion and would likely allow both Trump and Schumer to claim victory. Trump's Truth could be a signal he is willing to cut a deal. 

Figure 1: When will the Government Shutdown End? 

Source: Polymarket

President Peter Pellegrini is hosting his Polish counterpart, Karol Nawrocki, today as the Polish head of state begins a tour of the other 'Visegrad Four' (V4) states (Slovakia, Czechia, and Hungary). Nawrocki will also meet with PM Robert Fico and the Speaker of the National Council, Robert Rasi, during his visit to Bratislava. While both Nawrocki and Fico come from the nationalist, social conservative end of the political spectrum (albeit Nawrocki aligned with the main opposition right-wing Law and Justice Party in Poland, and Fico at the head of the left-wing nationalist Smer-SD), there are significant policy differences between the two when it comes to the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. 

• Marcin Przydacz, Head of the International Policy Office for Nawrocki, said ahead of the meeting that  "There are certain interests that certainly connect us with the V4 countries, especially in the fight against excessive centralisation and dominance within the EU. We need to build alliances, for example in the area of ​​the migration pact." Acknowledging differences regarding the war in Ukraine, Przydacz sought to gloss over the division, saying, "In international politics, relationships are not defined solely by what divides or unites us. There are many shared priorities on our agenda - among them economic, cross-border and energy security."
• Nawrocki will meet with Fico at around 14:25CET (08:25ET, 13:25GMT). The Polish president has talked up revitalising the V4 format, which has been stagnant in recent years amid political divisions between its members, most notably on Ukraine.