MEXICO: USDMXN Edging Higher as US Data Approaches
Sep-04 12:02
- While volumes across currency markets have been uninspiring on Thursday as key data approaches, USDMXN stands out having risen close to 0.5% on the session. This once again threatens the 50-day EMA, of which we have not had a daily close above since April. An immediate target for a stronger recovery would be the August 01 high, just shy of the 19.00 handle.
- We noted yesterday how Commerzbank expect bearish price action for the peso ahead, forecasting moves for USDMXN and EURMXN to 19.20 and 23.04 respectively into year-end 2025.
- Additionally, CIBC expect the short-term trend of MXN underperformance to persist leading up to tomorrow’s NFP release, as markets evaluate the respective easing trajectories of the Fed and Banxico into 2026. They state that notably, there appears to be greater downside risk for Banxico, with current market pricing maintaining the central bank’s terminal rate near 7.25%, despite dovish forward guidance.
- Latest Mexico gross fixed investment data has missed expectations in June, while private consumption received a small boost to 1.6% Y/y.
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