MEXICO: USDMXN Edges Down To Fresh Cycle Lows Amid US Water Dispute Optimism
Dec-11 14:23
* Amid Sheinbaum's constructive comments on the US water dispute and a decline in the US dollar in...
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GILTS: Tsy Bid Drives Fresh Demand, Resistance In Futures Remains Intact
Nov-11 14:07
Spill over from the post-ADP weekly employment data move in Tsy futures drives fresh demand for gilts in recent trade.
- Futures trade as high as 93.95, nearing resistance at 93.98.
- A break would reignite bullish momentum and switch focus to nearby round number resistance at 94.00, followed by some Fibonacci projections (94.24 & 94.60).
- Yields now ~8bp lower across the curve, with fresh session lows registered across the curve.
- Only 2s have broken below October yield lows when it comes to benchmark yields.
SONIA OPTIONS: Call Structures Bought
Nov-11 14:00
Demand for call structures in recent trade:
- SFIZ6 96.75/97.00/97.25 call fly paper paid 3.75 on 5.25K
- 0NU6 96.70/96.80 call spread and 97.10/97.20 call spread paper paid 6.25 on 7.5K
US DATA: Redbook Retail Sales Maintain Solid Pace In Early November
Nov-11 13:57
Retail sales rose 5.9% Y/Y in the first week of November (to Nov 8), per the latest Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index release. It's still early in the month but that's a slight uptick from 5.4% in October.
- We almost certainly won't be getting October retail sales data out as scheduled Friday (we still await the September report which was postponed due to the government shutdown). Between Chicago Fed CARTS (final est for Oct due out Thursday) and Redbook, though, it appears as though retail sales were broadly solid in October at least in nominal terms.
- That said, between politics and persistent inflation, consumer sentiment was subdued in the latest week, per the report: "Business was slow as people focused on the election, which is a common trend. Additionally, the federal government shutdown is creating challenges for some families. Persistent inflation and tariffs are also having a negative impact on the economy. November marks the official start of the holiday season, which begins in the last week of the month. This period serves as a transition for retailers, who take the opportunity to clear unsold merchandise and prepare for the holiday rush. While some stores are starting to promote holiday items earlier than usual, others may not be fully stocked until the day after Thanksgiving."
