MEXICO: USDMXN Bearish Theme Intact, In Close Proximity To Cycle Lows
Nov-14 12:21
- The Mexican peso is trading with a softer tone ahead of the NY crossover, with USDMXN edging up by 0.3%, amid the risk-off move in markets. Nonetheless, the pair continues to trade lower on the week and remains just 1% above recent cycle lows, as the peso has been buoyed by positive comments from Economy Minister Ebrard this week about prospects of concluding US trade talks this month.
- A bearish theme in USDMXN remains intact and a continuation lower and a breach of 18.2008, the Sep 17 low, would open the 18.000 handle. First resistance is at 18.4827, the 50-day EMA.
- On the macro front, the local data calendar remains clear today, with focus next week on Thursday’s Banxico minutes, and Friday’s final Q3 GDP and September economic activity data. Although the weak growth backdrop prompted policymakers to deliver another 25bp rate cut earlier this month, the forward guidance was amended to suggest the possibility of a pause in the easing cycle after a December cut.
- Earlier this week, Banxico Governor Rodriguez confirmed that a further 25bp rate cut is probable next month, but that Banxico does not have a predetermined path in 2026. However, as has been the case throughout the easing cycle, the Mexican peso has paid little attention this week to the central bank’s relative easing bias within the region, continuing to trade in a resilient manner.
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STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 SOFR Buy
Oct-15 12:21
- +10,000 SFRZ5 96.37, post time offer at 0806:00ET.
- The Dec'25 contract trades 96.365 last (-0.010).
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
Oct-15 12:03
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.19% (+0.04), volume: $2.932T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.16% (+0.04), volume: $1.144T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.16% (+0.04), volume: $1.113T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
GILT PAOF RESULTS: The PAOF for the 0.125% Aug-31 Linker was not taken up.
Oct-15 12:02
- GBP375.0mln have been available.
- This leaves GBP14.254bln of the linker in issue.
