JPY: USD/JPY - Consolidates On A 146 Handle
The USD/JPY range today has been 156.56 - 156.98 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 156.80, -0.05%. The pair has drifted a little lower in a very quiet session even with Japan returning. The price action looks pretty clear for now though and Japanese officials would have to do something extraordinary to change the narrative. The path of least resistance is now a higher USD/JPY and I suspect any dips back toward the 154-155 area would be used as buying opportunities. Shorter term first support looks to be towards 156.00-156.30, and topside is 157.00-157.30 a break of which would open up a retest of the 158.00 area. The large stimulus package has been approved but the market is asking how do you fund this extravagance when you have the highest debt-GDP ratio in the world and yields are exploding higher.
- Chester Ntonifor of BCA research pointed to Yen positioning as a reason this move could still have more to go, “One of the reasons the yen has been weakening by more than dollar strength will suggest is that a lot of speculators have just started to unwind their long positions.” See Graph Below.
- Takaichi Speaks With Trump Amid China/Japan Tensions: Japan PM Takaichi has confirmed she has spoken with US President Trump via a telephone call this morning. The call was made at the request of US President Trump. It came after US President Trump and China President Xi spoke on Monday. Japan/China tensions have been elevated in recent weeks in the aftermath of Takaichi's comments in relation to Taiwan.
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 155.50($339m),156.00($909m), 157.00($433m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 154.00($2.14b Nov 26), 154.00{$1.28b Nov 28), 155.00($1.86b Nov 26) - BBG.
- The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 99 Points
Fig 1 : Yen Open Interest
Source: MNI - Market News/BCA Research
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FED: MNI Fed Preview - October 2025: QT, Or Not QT
MNI's preview of the October FOMC has been published - Download Full Report Here
- The Federal Reserve is overwhelmingly expected to cut the funds rate by 25bp for a 2nd consecutive meeting on October 29, bringing the target range to 3.75-4.00%.
- This will again be framed as a risk management cut, with the limited data available since the September meeting not disconfirming that the shift in the balance of risks had tilted toward labor market downside.
- Dissent to this decision should once again be limited to Gov Miran in favor of a 50bp cut.
- With limited new developments and official data to opine on, Chair Powell’s press conference will be eyed for affirmation that a December cut remains on track, as signalled by the most recent Dot Plot.
- He’s unlikely to give much away, but it would be surprise given the lack of data and relevant developments if he suggested that a further 2025 cut was in any greater doubt than it was 6 weeks earlier.
- Instead, we think focus in terms of action at this meeting will be on the balance sheet, with the Fed likely to announce an end to quantitative tightening amid diminishing reserve levels and nascent evidence of funding market pressures.
- We will also be watching for any news on the Fed’s communications framework, with an updated “Dot Plot” potentially unveiled at some point by year-end.
MNI’s separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Oct 27
RATINGS: Moody's Lowers France's Outlook To Negative, Maintains Aa3 Rating
Moody's has lowered its outlook on France to negative from stable.
- Moody's was expected to at least lower the outlook, so this is not a surprise - there had been some risks perceived of a downgrade to A1 (from Aa3) in the domestic and foreign currency long-term issuer and domestic-currency senior unsecured ratings.
- Per the Moody's release: "The decision to change the outlook to negative reflects the increased risk that the fragmentation of the country's political landscape will continue to impair the functioning of France's legislative institutions. This political instability risks hampering the government's ability to address key policy challenges such as an elevated fiscal deficit, rising debt burden, and durable increase in borrowing costs, thus leading to a more rapid weakening in France's key fiscal metrics than we currently expect."
- Both S&P and Fitch have already downgraded France’s sovereign rating to the single-A bucket this year.
USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4016 @ 16:33 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 1.3979/3907 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3829 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3769 Low Sep 19
- SUP 4: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
USDCAD has pulled back from its recent highs. The trend condition is bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support lies at 1.3907, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3979.
