USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
Oct-24 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4066 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3946 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3863 High Oct 23
- PRICE: 1.3850 @ 16:03 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 1.3747/3715 Low Oct 14 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3659 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
- SUP 4: 1.3473/3420 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
The USDCAD trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is building on recent gains. Price has breached 1.3822, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3715, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought condition to unwind.
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US TSYS: Curves Twist to New 2+ Year Highs, Consumer Confidence Dips
Sep-24 19:30
- Treasuries looked to finish mixed Tuesday, curves twisting steeper with the short end outperforming. Rates bounced off modestly weaker levels after this mornings lower than expected Conference Board consumer survey.
- Data was markedly weaker than expected in September. Consumer confidence fell to 98.7 (cons 104.0) for a sizeable slip after an upward revised 105.6 (initial 103.3) in Aug. Declines were seen in both the present situation and expectations components.
- Dec'24 10Y Tsy futures are currently +3.5 at 114-28 vs. 114-09.5 low -- still well off initial technical resistance at 115-02+/23+ High Sep 19 / 11 and the bull trigger.
- Curves steepened with the short end outperforming, new 2+ highs in the 2s10s curve climbing to 20.213, 5s30s taps 62.011 high.
- Projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain traction, latest vs. this morning's levels (*) as follows: Nov'24 cumulative -39.8bp (-38.5bp), Dec'24 -78.6bp (-74.4bp), Jan'25 -113.0bp (-108.0bp).
- Cross asset summary: Stocks held modest gains after the bell, near all-time highs, Eminis 5793.50, the Dow 42,232.0; Gold marked new high of 2,660.50.
- Looking ahead to Wednesday's session: MBA Mortgage apps, New Home Sales, $28B 2Y FRN, $62B 17W bill auctions, $70B 5Y at 1300ET.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: New Home sale,
Sep-24 19:25
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Sep-25 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (14.2%, --)
- Sep-25 1000 New Home Sales (739k, 700k)
- Sep-25 1000 New Home Sales MoM (10.6%, -5.3%)
- Sep-25 1130 US Tsy $28B 2Y FRN, $62B 17W Bills
- Sep-25 1300 $70B 5Y Note auction (91282CLN9)
- Sep-25 1600 Fed Gov Kugler moderated Q&A (text)
STIR FUTURES: Late Dec'24, Mar'25 SOFR Buying
Sep-24 19:14
- Strong buying in short end SOFR after the bell:
- +32,000 SFRZ4, 96.08 to 96.09
- +32,000 SFRH5, 96.655 to 96.67
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