POLITICAL RISK: US Daily Brief 19 Dec-25
Dec-19 13:12
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Executive summary:
- President Donald Trump is due to speak twice today, making an announcement from the White House at 13:00 ET 18:00GMT and then delivering remarks on the economy from Rocky Mount, North Carolina, at 21:00 ET 02:00 GMT. The North Carolina address will be Trump’s second in a short period of time in relation to the economy, and specifically the issue of ‘affordability’.
- In its final day before leaving Washington, D.C., for its Christmas recess, the Senate failed to reach an accord that would start the voting process for a five-bill ‘minibus’ providing FY26 funding for Defense, Labor-HHS, Commerce-Justice-Science, Transportation-HUD, and Interior.
- Two separate bills were introduced on 18 December with the intention of restricting the sale of advanced AI microchips to “countries of concern” in a similar fashion to those restrictions in place for the export of military arms.
- In a phone interview with NBC News, President Trump, asked whether the option of war with Venezuela was on the table, replied, "I don’t rule it out, no". Also asked whether the ‘blockade’ of sanctioned oil tankers going in and out of Venezuelan waters, and the military strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific risked sparking a war, Trump replied that “I don’t discuss it”.
- Poll of the Day: Public's healthcare concerns hit president's job approval rating.
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Historical bullets
STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Nov-19 13:04
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.94% (-0.06), volume: $3.220T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.90% (-0.06), volume: $1.278T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.90% (-0.06), volume: $1.256T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
GILT PAOF RESULTS: The PAOF for the 4.75% Oct-35 Gilt was not taken up.
Nov-19 13:02
- GBP1.125bln have been on offer.
- This leaves GBP23.000bln of the gilt in issue.
CROSS ASSET: Bonds Draw Support From Downtick In Crude
Nov-19 12:52
Weakness in crude oil futures has supported bonds over the last couple of hours or so, although pre-existing week-to-date highs in TY, Bund & gilt futures remain untouched.
- Our commodities team notes that oil has softened as the market digests signs of renewed efforts by the U.S. to strike a Ukraine peace deal, although caution that given failed previous attempts, a deal still seems a long way off.
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