EU FINANCIALS: UniCredit: 3Q25 Results Headlines
(UCGIM; Baa1pos/A-/A-)
Solid. A trading income beat, slightly lower OpEx and lower provisions all assist in a healthy operating income rise, and beat, even into a lower interest margin. CET1 falls 1.2% to 14.8%, including -80bps from Commerzbank equity consolidation, -60bps from Alpha bank consolidation and +62bps from Danish compromise accounting which is still subject to regulatory approval. 2025 & 2027 guidance confirmed.
- Net Revenue €6.2bn vs est. €6.0bn (0.7% QoQ / 0.4% YoY)
- Net Interest Income €3.4bn vs est. €3.4bn (-2.7% QoQ / -5.5% YoY)
- Net Fee & Commission Income €2.0bn vs est. €2.0bn (-3.9% QoQ / 4.8% YoY)
- Net Trading Income €432mn vs est. €291mn (125.0% QoQ / -2.0% YoY)
- Operating Expenses €2.3bn vs est. €2.4bn (-1.0% QoQ / 0.0% YoY)
- Loan Loss Provision €113mn vs est. €173mn (3.7% QoQ / -31.5% YoY)
- Operating Income €3.8bn vs est. €3.5bn (1.6% QoQ / 2.1% YoY)
- CET1 Ratio 14.8% vs est. 14.8%
- NPL/Total Loans (bps) 259.8 vs est. 279.8
- Cost of Risk (bps) 10.2 vs est. 15.7
- OpInc/RWA (bps) 129 vs est. 119
- RoTE 19.1%
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Historical bullets
GILTS: Opening Calls
Gilt Calls, 90.61/90.72.
EQUITIES: Cash Opening Calls
EU Cash Opening calls: Estox 50: +0.08%, Dax: -0.20%, CAC: +0.07%, FTSE +0.11%, SMI +0.09%.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 0.6793 1.500 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17
- PRICE: 0.6593 @ 20:35 BST Sep 19
- SUP 1: 0.6581/6547 Intraday low / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6527 61.8% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the current pullback is considered corrective - for now. The recent rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens the 0.6726 next, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6547, the 50-day EMA.
