MEXICO: Unexpected Trade Deficit In July

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2  
• RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.66/149.18 High Jul 21 / High Jul 16 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 148.40 @ 12:31 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 146.76 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.01/145.86 50-day EMA / Low Jul 24 
• SUP 3: 145.16 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 144.21 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle  

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place. Today’s strong start to the week signals the end of the corrective pullback between Jul 16 - 24. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 149.18, the Jul 16 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Pivot support to monitor is 146.01, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would instead signal scope for stronger reversal. First support is at 146.76, the 20-day EMA.

USTR Greer speaking on CNBC:

• "ON EU TRADE: WANT TO KEEP WORKING ON STEEL, DIGITAL SERVICES TAXES ALSO AREA TO KEEP WORKING ON
• ON CHINA TRADE: WANT TO MOVE FORWARD IN A POSITIVE WAY, DON'T EXPECT BIG BREAKTHROUGH TODAY" - Reuters

• In the FI space, Bund futures traded lower Friday, extending the reversal from the Jul 22 high. The move down resulted in a print below key support and a bear trigger, at 129.08, the Jul 14 low. The 129.00 handle represents a key area of support and a clear break of it would represent an important bearish development. It marks the base of a 3.5-month range. Initial key resistance to watch is 129.97, the 20-day EMA.
• Gilt futures have pulled back from the Jul 22 high. For now the contract remains above its recent lows. A rally early last week resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 92.42 next, a 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low.