CANADA DATA: Unexpected Jobs Contraction Boosts Implied April BOC Cut Chances
Apr-04 19:55
Canadian employment unexpectedly contracted in March, falling by the most since January 2022 at -32.6k (+10.0k expected, +1.1k prior) in a sign that the trade war with the US is spilling over increasingly into the "hard" data. The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1pp to 6.7%, in line with expectations and below the November 6.9% high, though unrounded it rose from 6.55% to 6.71% - the largest increase since November.
- The drop in employment was largely due to a 62.0k drop in full-time positions (after -19.7k, the 2nd straight drop), with part-time up for the 4th consecutive month at 29.5k (after 20.8k prior) - that mix is clearly indicative of hiring uncertainty among firms.
- The monthly full-time drop was the 2nd largest since the pandemic lows in the labour market (April 2020). Goods producing jobs fell by 12k (2nd consecutive decline), while services shed 21k (wholesale/retail trade and Information, culture and recreation led losses).
- The participation rate dipped 0.1pp to 65.2%.
- Wages were soft, dropping 0.2% M/M for the first drop since November, with the Y/Y rate slipping to 3.6% from 3.8% prior. The rise in permanent employees' wages of 3.5% Y/Y was well below the 4.1% expected (4.0% prior).
- Market-implied probability of an April BOC rate cut rose to as high as 68% after the data before settling the day at around 55%. That compares to 40% prior to Wednesday's US tariffs announcement.
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COMMODITIES: Copper Surges On Tariff Threat, WTI Extends Losses
Mar-05 19:52
- Copper has rallied by an impressive 5.5% today, driven by President Trump’s threat to impose a 25% tariff on copper imports in his speech to Congress yesterday.
- The move is the largest one-day dollar and percentage gain in copper since November 2022, bringing the red metal up to $481/lb, the highest level since Feb 14.
- Copper futures remain in a bull cycle, with next resistance seen at $488.50, the Feb 14 high, followed by $500 round number resistance.
- Meanwhile, spot gold remains broadly unchanged at $2,920/oz, less than $40 below last week’s record high, amid hope of a tariff deal between the US, Mexico and Canada.
- Reuters has reported that the US will give a one-month exemption on any autos coming through USMCA.
- Gold remains 2% higher on the week, and a stronger rally would refocus attention on the next objective at $2,962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3,000.0 handle.
- In contrast, WTI has fallen further today amid oversupply concerns from OPEC’s returning barrels, rising US crude stocks, and fears of weaker global demand due to increased trade protectionism.
- WTI Apr 25 is down by 3.0% at $66.2/bbl.
- US crude inventories rose by 3.6m bbl, driven by a decline in refinery runs and despite a small drop in imports, while exports held above 4mb/d.
- Recent weakness in WTI futures has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15, paving the way for an extension towards $65.68 next, the Oct 29 ‘24 low.
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Late Support, SPX Near Late Tuesday Highs
Mar-05 19:26
- Stocks managed to bounce off midday lows, extend past early overnight highs in late Wednesday trade, largely driven by nascent optimism over US delaying auto tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as renewed talks with Ukraine ahead expectations that a minerals deal will go forward.
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 559.28 points (1.32%) at 43078.24, S&P E-Minis up 71 points (1.23%) at 5859.75, Nasdaq up 285.4 points (1.6%) at 18569.59.
- Materials and Industrials sectors lead gainers in late trade, chemical makers and mining shares buoyed the Materials sector: Celanese Corp +10.87%, Freeport-McMoRan +8.60%, FMC +6.89%, Dow +5.77% and Eastman Chemical +4.74%.
- Defense stocks and airlines buoyed the the Industrials sector: Huntington Ingalls Industries +12.33%, General Dynamics Corp d +5.08%, Carrier Global +4.93%, United Airlines +4.44%, Delta Air Lines +3.29% while Northrop Grumman gained +3.18%.
- Energy and Utility sectors continued to underperform, partially tied to the continued decline in crude prices (WTI -2.10 at 66.16): Marathon Petroleum -4.71%, Valero Energy -4.09%, Phillips 66-2.31% and Occidental Petroleum -2.24%. Meanwhile, NRG Energy -1.90%, FirstEnergy -1.76% and Consolidated Edison -1.62% weighed on the Utility sector.
- Earnings expected after today's close and through Thursday include: Zscaler Inc, Victoria's Secret, Marvell Technology, Kroger, Macy's, Burlington Stores, Costco Wholesale, Broadcom Inc, Hewlett Packard, Samsara, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals and The Gap.
EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Reversal
Mar-05 19:00
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8385 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8385 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8375 Intraday hugh
- PRICE: 0.8372 @ 16:09 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 0.8322 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A strong reversal in EURGBP from its recent lows highlights a short-term reversal. The cross has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The impulsive rally over the past 2 trading sessions signals scope for an extension towards 0.8385 and 0.8419, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.8322, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low.
