SECURITY: UK & France Ldrs Hold Presser After 'Coalition Of The Willing' Talks
UK PM Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron hold a presser following the conclusion of a multi-day state visit, a joint summit, and a meeting of the 'coalition of the willing' in support of Ukraine. Livestream here. At the virtual meeting of the 'coalition of the willing', notably the first to take place with representatives from the US, the establishment of a permanent HQ for the group was agreed to be located in Paris, before transferring to London after a year.
- Starmer says that both countries agreed to overhaul the Combined Joint Expeditionary Force (CJEF) to make it "five times larger". With the CJEF able to deploy 10,000 troops in response to crises, a 5X expansion of the force, if realised, would mark a significant increase in Western Europe's strategic defence capabilities.
- The PM goes on to announce a plan 'to protect Ukraine's skies, seas and land after the conflict ends' via the establishment of a 'future coordination hub' in Kyiv.
- Following the announcement that for the first time the UK and France will deepen cooperation on deployment of nuclear forces in the event of a crisis, Macron says "We are not ruling out the coordination of our respective nuclear deterrents", adding, "That is a message others must hear."
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bearish Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 111-30 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 3: 111-19+ 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 111-14+ High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 1: 110-20 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 110-06+ @ 16:50 BST Jun 10
- SUP 1: 109-26 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing
The recent reversal lower in Treasury futures, undermines the current bullish theme. An extension down would expose support at 109-26, the May 29 low, where a break would open key support and the bear trigger, at 109-12+, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Jun12 $1.1350(E1.9bln), $1.1395-00(E1.3bln), $1.1425-35(E1.4bln), $1.1440-50(E2.6bln), $1.1500(E2.2bln); Jun13 $1.1400-05(E1.7bln), $1.1485-00(E1.9bln); Jun16 $1.1400(E1.2bln)
- USD/JPY: Jun12 Y143.00($1.3bln), Y143.85-00($1.0bln); Jun13 Y144.00($1.2bln); Jun16 Y145.00($4.4bln)
- AUD/USD: Jun12 $0.6475-85(A$1.1bln)
UK: POLITICAL RISK - Spending Review 2025
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MNI's Political Risk team has published an article looking at the political implications of tomorrow's Spending Review, particularly in the context of the Labour government's challenge from the right-wing populist Reform UK in opinion polls.
