JGB TECHS: (U5) Soft Auction Hinders Tech Picture
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 137.99 @ 17:38 GMT Jul 29
- SUP 1: 137.32 - Low Jul 25
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs hold above recent lows, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal posted off the mid-June highs and weak demand for JGBs at auction. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, the first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
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ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
- Bank of Korea to Sell KRW500 bn 91-Day Bonds
- South Korea to Sell KRW2.4 tn 2-Year Bonds
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$5 Billion 365-Day Bills
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$67.488 Billion 92-Day Bills
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$20.4 Billion 182-Day Bills
- Thailand to Sell THB30bn of 181-Days Bills
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 180D Bills (PH0000060691)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 9.0Bln 364D Bills (PH0000060642)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 91D Bills (PH0000059362)
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
| 0000GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea Industrial Production YoY MAY |
| 0000GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea Industrial Production SA MoM MAY |
| 0000GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea Cyclical Leading Index Change MAY |
| 0230GMT | 0930HKT | 1130AEDT | China Manufacturing PMI JUNE |
| 0230GMT | 0930HKT | 1130AEDT | China Non-Manufacturing PMI JUNE |
| 0230GMT | 0930HKT | 1130AEDT | China Composite PMI JUNE |
| 0300GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | Singapore Money Supply M1 YOY MAY |
| 0300GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | Singapore Money Supply M2 YOY MAY |
| 0500GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Thailand Manufacturing Index ISIC NSA YoY MAY |
| 0500GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Thailand Capacity Utilisation ISIC MAY |
| 0800GMT | 1500HKT | 1700AEDT | Thailand BoP Current Account Balance |
| 0830GMT | 1530HKT | 1730AEDT | Thailand Exports YoY MAY |
| 0830GMT | 1530HKT | 1730AEDT | Thailand Exports MAY |
| 0830GMT | 1530HKT | 1730AEDT | Thailand Imports YoY MAY |
| 0330GMT | 1530HKT | 1730AEDT | Thailand Imports MAY |
| 0330GMT | 1530HKT | 1730AEDT | Thailand Trade Balance MAY |
| 0530GMT | 1530HKT | 1730AEDT | Thailand BoP Overall Balance MAY |
NZD: NZD/USD - Looking To Build Momentum To Extend Beyond 0.6100
The NZD had a range Friday night of 0.6037 - 0.6078, Asia is trading around 0.6060. A small pullback on Friday as consolidation continues on a 0.6000 handle. The USD has broken some key levels and is still looking vulnerable, this could see the NZD/USD continue to probe the 0.6100 area looking to gain some momentum to ultimately break higher.
- Bloomberg) -- China firmly opposes any countries reaching trade agreements with the US that would sacrifice Chinese interests in exchange for tariff relief, according to a statement from the Ministry of Commerce on Saturday night.
- “If such a situation occurs, China will not accept it and will take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” an unidentified spokesperson was cited saying in response to a media query about recent US trade talks with other nations. “It has been proven that only by firmly upholding its principles and positions can a country truly protect its legitimate rights.”
- A huge bounce from sub 0.5900 and the NZD has now established a foothold above 0.6000, with the USD breaking lower the NZD/USD looks to be building for a potential break higher of its own. A clear break of 0.6100 could provide the momentum to begin a larger move higher, initially targeting the 0.6400 area.
- CFTC Data shows Asset Managers have cut their shorts and are now beginning to build a long in NZD +12195, the Leveraged community maintained their short that just been added to -11981.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5850(NZD404m July 1), 0.5800(649m July2)
- Data/Event : Filled Jobs, ANZ Activity Outlook & Business Confidence
Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
