JGB TECHS: (U5) Rallies Off Lows

The highlight of the week will be Wednesday’s Q1 GDP release but before then key components will be released on Tuesday. GDP is expected to rise 0.4% q/q to be up 1.5% y/y after 0.6% & 1.3% in Q4. Investment and real household consumption were little changed on the quarter.

• On Tuesday, the Q1 balance of payments data are released and include the net export contribution to GDP, which is forecast to be flat. Bloomberg consensus has the current account deficit steady at $12.5bn.
• Q1 company profits are also on Tuesday and projected to rise 1.3% q/q after 5.9%. Inventories are part of this data set and consensus has a 0.2% q/q rise after 0.1% in Q4.
• The public demand contribution to GDP is also out on Tuesday. It contributed 0.2pp to Q4 growth.
• The RBA minutes from the May meeting print on Tuesday. It cut rates 25bp at this meeting but no change and 50bp were also considered. Assistant Governor (Economic) Hunter speaks on Australia’s global linkages on Tuesday at 1305 AEST.
• Final S&P Global PMIs for May print this week with manufacturing on Monday and composite & services on Wednesday. Services moderated in the flash May release while manufacturing was stable.
• The May Melbourne Institute inflation gauge is released on Monday. In April it rose 0.6% m/m to be up 3.3% y/y.
• ANZ job ads for May are also out on Monday. They rose 0.5% m/m in April. The labour market remains tight.
• April household expenditure is published on Thursday and consensus expects it to rise 0.2% m/m leaving the annual rate at 3.5% y/y.
• April merchandise trade data are also Thursday and the surplus is forecast to narrow slightly to $6bn from $6.9bn.

• Bank of Korea to Sell KRW500bn 91-Day Bonds
• South Korea to Sell KRW2.3tn 2-Year Bonds
• Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 91D Bills (PH0000059248)
• Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 182D Bills (PH0000059636)
• Philippines To Sell PHP 9.0Bln 364D Bills (PH0000060469)
• Taiwan to Sell NT$30 Billion 91-Day Bills